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Vietnam: Industry, construction to make highest growth in Q1
The Hanoitimes – The significant growth of the industry and construction will be the key driver to boost the country`s GDP growth in the first quarter of this year.
According to the National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast (NCIF) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment, GDP growth in Q1 is estimated at 6.23 percent, much higher than 5.15 percent in the same period last year. Of which, the industry and construction will lead all sectors with the growth rate of 6.87 percent.
Dang Duc Anh, head of the NCIF’s Department of Analysis and Forecast, said the surge of 17 percent of the manufacturing and processing industry in the first two months of this year would drive the whole industry sector.
The NCIF also predicted the service sector will expand 6.74 percent in the first quarter, while inflation many reach 3.1 percent, higher than in the same period last year.
Continuing from 2017, progress has been seen in all economic indications in the first quarter of 2018 thanks to busy manufacturing, construction, trade, wholesale and retail, banking and tourism sectors.
GDP growth in 2018 is now predicted to hit 6.83 percent, higher than the NCIF’s forecast in December last year.
The government’s efforts in removing difficulties facing businesses are expected to help boost the industry and construction sectors.
The NCIF also forecast that the agro-forestry-fishery sector will continue expanding as measures to develop sustainable agriculture are becoming effective.
According to NCIF, main factors boosting economic growth this year include drastic actions of the government in improving the business environment, and stability in macro-economic policies.
Besides, major projects in the processing and manufacturing sector and the newly-signed Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) are predicted to lift investment and trade, they added.
Earlier, Director of Saigon Securities Incorporate (SSI) Nguyen Duc Hung Linh also forecast that Vietnam can be confident that its GDP growth in the first quarter of the year will be equivalent to the second half of 2017, or 6.17 percent, citing some reasons for the positive forecast.
Firstly, Linh said, the country’s electronic industry will maintain a high growth rate in the first quarter this year as the Galaxy S9 was launched in late February, sooner than the launch of the Galaxy S8 in April 2017.
Secondly, the growth of the mining industry will be positive. In case it declines, the decreasing rate will be at a very low level.
Thirdly, service industries such as retail sales, catering and food services will remain a steady growth, he said.
According to Linh, it is important to note that the slow growth in the first half of 2017 will create a low base for high growth in the first half of 2018, adding that this will be difficult to repeat in the second half of the year.
However, he noted that a slowdown of FDI inflows should be paid special attention to enable issuing new policies aimed at reviving the inflows into Vietnam.
Linh also recommended that the recovery of the domestic firms is a positive signal and it is necessary to continue to have policies to promote the development of the firms.
“Supports should be given to domestic major firms to help them create spearheads for the country’s growth,” he said, adding that it is also important to seek and develop new growth drivers such as special administrative and economic zones, high-tech agriculture or tourism.
The GSO’s Business Sentiment Survey of manufacturing and processing enterprises also showed that 48.2 per cent of businesses were optimistic that the trend would improve, 35.7 per cent of businesses believed business would be stable and 16.1 per cent of enterprises predicted more difficulties.
Source: http://www.hanoitimes.vn/economy/industry/2018/03/81E0C372/industry-construction-to-make-highest-growth-in-q1/