Thailand
Trump’s policies unlikely to weigh upon Thailand
Protectionist policies by US President Donald Trump are unlikely to have much direct impact on Thailand’s international trade because it is not a country with which the US has a hefty trade deficit, according to a Commerce Ministry study.
Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said the study also found that Thailand would have greater opportunities to export to the US market in lieu of China and Mexico if the US administration pursues retaliatory measures against China and revises the North American Free Trade Agreement.
The US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could also help restore Thailand’s export competitiveness and lure back foreign investment.
“The US pullout from the TPP offers a safe haven for many Thai export items such as automotive and parts, auto tyres, air conditioners, televisions, gems and jewellery, and processed chicken and seafood,” said Ms Pimchanok. “Without the TPP, our key competitors like Vietnam and Malaysia will no longer have advantages over Thailand.”
She said Thailand is also set to move ahead with bilateral trade talks with the US, particularly via the channels of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (Tifa) and the Thailand-US Amity Treaty. Thailand is scheduled to host the Thai-US meeting on Tifa in April this year.
Thailand and the US signed Tifa in 2002. The US uses Tifa discussions to address trade issues of long-standing concern and often to establish the necessary conditions for movement towards an FTA. Under Tifa, the US and Thailand have focused on action plans to address US concerns regarding Thailand’s IP rights and customs regimes.
Tifa meetings were suspended in October 2003 after then-president George W Bush announced the US’s intention to negotiate an FTA with Thailand to deepen trade and investment and encourage economic and regulatory reform, improving IP protection, transparency, and the rule of law.
FTA negotiations started in 2004 but were suspended in 2006 after the dissolution of Thailand’s parliament and the subsequent military coup. Talks resumed in 2012.
The US is Thailand’s third-largest trading partner, after China and Japan. Two-way trade between Thailand and US amounted to US$36.5 billion (1.28 trillion baht) in 2016, $24.49 billion of which was from Thai exports. Thailand enjoyed a copy2-billion trade surplus with the US last year.
But Ms Pimchanok said indirect effects still need close monitoring, particularly for the shipments of Thai intermediate products to China, risks from foreign exchange volatility, capital outflows, additional trade measures and a lower-than-expected oil price recovery.
Source: http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1194045/trumps-policies-unlikely-to-weigh-upon-thailand