Thailand
The week ahead – Inflation figures, rate decisions, Singapore IPI
Inflation figures
INFLATION is in focus during this relative light week for economic data. The Statistics Department is expected to announce the August consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday.
Economists said the CPI data is likely to show continued negative inflation.
In July, the country’s CPI declined 1.3% to 119.9 from 121.5 in the same month last year, according to the Statistics Department.
However, the CPI in July had increased by 0.7% from June. The CPI for January to July fell by 0.9% from the previous corresponding period.
Bank Negara will also be releasing its international reserves as at Sept 15 on Wednesday.
As at Aug 28, the international reserves amounted to US$104.4bil.
Rate decisions
THE People’s Bank of China, Bank of Thailand and Reserve Bank of New Zealand will decide on their rates this week.
China’s September one-year and five-year loan prime rate (LPR) fixings will be announced today.
UOB maintained its forecast for one-year LPR at 3.75% by end-2020 which assumes the People’s Bank of China will cut the rate by only another 10 basis points for the rest of 2020.
This is in addition to the 30-basis-point cut in the first half of 2020.
According to a Bloomberg poll, all four analysts including UOB expect no change to Bank of Thailand’s 0.5% policy rate.
ING senior Asia economist Prakash Sakpal said the last 25-basis-point cut in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s cash rate was in March and for Bank of Thailand, that occurred in May, bringing rates down to their all-time lows of 0.25% to 0.50% respectively.
While ING anticipated all three central banks to keep rates on hold, New Zealand’s 12% second quarter GDP contraction – the sharpest fall in developed markets – may raise some interest in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting as the speculation about negative interest rates is on the rise there.
Singapore IPI, CPI
UOB Global Economics and Market Research said market attention would be on the August industrial production data.
The research house estimated the city state’s manufacturing sector contracted by 7.6% month-on-month in August (from +1.6% in April) and that would translate into a contraction of 6.7% year-on-year (from -8.4% year-on-year in July).
Singapore is expected to announce its CPI on Wednesday and industrial production data on Friday.
Singapore’s core inflation fell to -0.4% year-on-year in July, down from -0.2% in June. This is the lowest since core inflation hit -0.5% in January 2010.
Source: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/09/21/the-week-ahead—inflation-figures-rate-decisions-singapore-ipi