Thailand
Thailand: January’s CCI at 3-year high
Consumer confidence rose for the sixth straight month in January, hitting a three-year high, driven by expectations of improved economic conditions stemming from expansion in exports and tourism.
But the survey still indicates consumer concerns about the higher cost of living and the possible delay of the general elections.
Thanavath Phonvichai, vice-president for research at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said January’s consumer confidence index (CCI) stood at 80, up from 79.2 logged in December and the highest level in 36 months.
The overall economic index registered 67 last month, up from December’s 66.2 and the highest in 34 months.
The job opportunity index logged in at 74.9, up from 74, while the future income index stood at 98, up from 97.5 — a 37-month high.
“A rising CCI is the result of last year’s GDP growth, forecast to reach 4%, the highest level in five years. This year’s economic growth is expected at 4.2%,” said Mr Thanavath.
“An increase in the daily minimum wage of 5–22 baht starting from April 1 will give 6 million labourers more income.”
Despite an upward trend, the CCI remains below 100 because benefits of economic growth and income distribution have not reached rural areas, while low income earners still face difficulties in sustaining stable income, said Mr Thanavath.
He said risks that warrant monitoring in the future include a wage hike affecting small and medium-sized enterprises’ financial liquidity and higher costs of living.
The stronger baht, the delay in the general election to February 2019, and the protracted low prices seen among agricultural products are other risks that could impede consumer confidence going forward, he said.
These looming risks are deemed short-term concerns as they are not expected to derail Thailand’s long-term economic growth outlook, said Mr Thanavath.
This outlook is reflected through how the new car purchase and housing purchase indexes rose to 87.5 and 66 in January, respectively, from 84.8 and 66 registered in the previous month, he said.
UTCC’s Center for Economic and Business forecasts Thailand’s GDP to expand 4.2-4.5% this year, with the baht’s value against the US dollar anticipated at 31.5.
“The economy is projected to see robust recovery in June from the government stimulus package, export expansion, and tourism growth,” said Mr Thanavath.
The National Economic and Social Development Board is due to announce the official 2017 GDP data on Feb 19. Thai GDP grew 3.2% in 2016.
In the first nine months of 2017, the economy grew by 3.8% year-on-year, with the main contributors being export growth, private consumption and the recovering manufacturing sector.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1408014/januarys-cci-at-3-year-high