Overall, the Business Confidence Index (BCI) for last month, produced by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), edged up to 93.9 points from 92.6 in October.

“All aspects of the index, except business confidence in exports, have improved,” said Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the FTI. “The improved areas consisted of total buying orders, total sales, production volume and business turnover.”

The business confidence index consists of data from 1,120 entrepreneurs from 45 industrial groups in Thailand.

 “The BCI results have improved for two consecutive months, and are currently the highest in the past 66 months. They have recovered well after the slump in figures in August and September, reflecting the general trend of the economy,” said Montri Mahaplerkpong, vice chairman of the FTI. 

In August, the index slumped to 92.5 points from 93.2 in July, according to the FTI, mainly resulting from the heavy rainfall and the US-China trade war.

Business confidence in exports for the next three months is predicted to come in at 109.3 points, a decrease from the predicted figures in the same period last year, which stood at 110, Montri said.

“This is largely due to the uncertainty of the 90-day halt in the US-China trade war. Thai manufacturers are still not confident that the agreed halt between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will lead to a long-term settlement in the current superpower trade conflict,” he said. 

Even so, the month-on-month BCI figures regarding Thai exports have still been increasing. In November, the index was at 90 compared with 88.6 in October. This is due to the depreciating baht, which reduces the price of Thai exports, making them more competitive in foreign markets, he added. Manufacturers see a short-term opportunity to gain from the trade conflict through replacing goods affected by the tariffs in both the US and Chinese markets. However, over time, these markets will adapt to the shifted supply chain and competition in those markets will rise, according to Montri.

Meanwhile, he suggested that Thai manufacturers should look to boosting exports to Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV) over the long-term. The CLMV subregion is the largest export destination for Thai products.

 “Currently, up to 25 per cent of Thai exports go to the Asean region, making it the No 1 region for Thai exports. This is followed by exports to China, making up to 12 per cent of total exports and the US at 10 per cent,” Montri said.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30360763