Thailand
Thailand: Consumer sentiment continues rise
The consumer confidence index (CCI) rose for the second straight month in September, backed by strong exports and improved growth forecasts, but concerns about uncontrollable risks still weighed, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
Vice-president for research Thanavath Phonvichai said the CCI rose to 75.0 in September from 74.5 in August.
“The index rose for the second straight month, largely due to rising exports and hefty tourism,” Mr Thanavath said.
But the lacklustre progress of infrastructure megaprojects remained a concern, with consumers doubtful that such investment activity has boosted the economy.
Positive factors for the index in September included exports, which in August rose by 13.2% to US$21.2 billion (702.5 billion baht), the highest value in 4½ years, as demand for Thai goods rose appreciably in major markets.
Cumulative exports for 2017 are up more than 8%, making it likely that shipments will exceed the government’s full-year growth target of 7%.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking also sees exports aligning with the government’s forecast: the panel revised its view for export growth to 6.5-7.5% from the previous 3.5-4.5%.
Another positive is the Bank of Thailand’s revision of its 2017 growth forecast. The central bank raised its full-year GDP growth view to 3.8% from 3.5% and its 2018 forecast to 3.8% from 3.7%.
The central bank’s latest decision to leave the policy interest rate untouched at 1.5% was another supporting issue boosting the CCI, as maintaining relatively low rates is expected to stimulate investment.
A rising SET index, which broke through the key resistance level of 1,600 for a second straight month, indicated sustained capital inflows.
“At the same time, the rising inflows reflected more confidence from foreign investors because of the stable political situation,” Mr Thanavath said.
Persistent negative factors weighed on the index, though. Rising retail fuel prices raised concerns about higher cost of living, while low commodity prices could lead to reduced purchasing power. The recent floods that hit several commercial districts in the North and Northeast dealt a blow to local businesses.
Mr Thanavath said consumers expressed fear of rising inflation at a time when earnings are stagnant, adding to the sense that the economy has yet to fully recover.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1337491/consumer-sentiment-continues-rise