Poon said the baht is likely to fluctuate in a wide range and could continue to weaken if foreign investors sell Thai assets due to the Ukraine-Russia war.

However, he predicted the baht would not weaken much as foreign investors had already halted speculation that saw them sell Bt60 billion in short-term bonds at the start of the conflict. If the war does not worsen, the baht will be supported by a weakening dollar and gold-selling, he added.

Poon forecast a baht resistance level at 33.40 to 33.50, which would see exporters selling the dollar. He saw its key support level as 33.00, when importers would buy dollars.

Poon speculated that the war might support further demand for dollars as the so-called safe haven currency. However, the dollar might weaken if the US Federal Reserve does not increase the interest rate as quickly as the market expects, he added.

The Fed signalled via its “dot plot” that it will increase the interest rate only six times this year and next. As such, Poon said the dollar’s upside might be limited once the Fed’s monetary policy becomes clear.