Thailand
‘Slow pace of vaccinations threatens ASEAN recovery’
Slow vaccination rates and the emergence of the Delta variant of the Coronavirus has forced Moody’s Analytics to revise its gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for three ASEAN nations.
The agency said that the highly contagious new variant is threatening the economic recovery anticipated in the second half of 2021. Moody’s cut its forecast for Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia.
“Southeast Asia has been hit badly. Daily infections for Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam are at their worst, on a seven-day moving average. The Philippines and Malaysia are not far off from their daily infection peaks reached in the second quarter of 2021,” Moody’s said.
The agency said Indonesia was at the “worse end” of the spectrum, forcing the rating agency to forecast its GDP forecast from 5 percent to 4.5 percent – “the likelihood of further downward revisions is high as the national lockdown saps domestic demand.”
Moody’s threshold for herd immunity is 70 percent of the population.
For Cambodia, that will require the Kingdom to vaccinate nearly 12 million people to achieve herd immunity.
According to Bloomberg’s “Path to Immunity Tracker” which defines herd immunity as having 75 percent of the population inoculation, Cambodia is due to reach herd immunity in three months if current momentum continues.
Singapore, however, is leading ASEAN, with the tracker projecting that the country is just three weeks away from herd immunity.
By comparison, neighbouring countries including Thailand, Laos and Vietnam are 12 months, 14 months and an extraordinary 8.2 years away from reaching herd immunity respectively.
Moody’s said that the 70 percent threshold removes the need for harsh lockdowns, affecting domestic demand.
Using Vietnam as an example, it said that the country had originally introduced aggressive containment measures but did not apply “urgency” in securing vaccine supplies while the pandemic was under control.
“Now, it has the lowest vaccination rate in Southeast Asia. In dealing with its latest Coronavirus wave, the government avoided imposing a nationwide lockdown… The latest lockdown measures in the southern region and Ho Chi Minh City will take a marked toll on Vietnam’s economy in the current quarter,” Moody’s said.
The World Health Organization has stated it does not have an official threshold for herd immunity.
Source: https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50903732/slow-pace-of-vaccinations-threatens-asean-recovery/