Singapore private home prices down 0.4% qoq in Q2: URA flash estimate

OVERALL prices of private home prices in Singapore fell 0.4 per cent in the second quarter of this year over the previous quarter, based on a flash estimate released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) on Monday (Jul 3).

This contrasts with a 3.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) hike in URA’s overall price index for private homes in Q1 this year.

The second-quarter decline, based on the flash estimate, is the first drop in the price index since Q1 2020 as price momentum eased across all market segments, URA said, adding that that the private housing market is showing signs of moderation.

In a Facebook post, National Development Minister Desmond Lee noted the drop in the private home price index “comes after several rounds of measures since December 2021, including the latest ABSD (additional buyer’s stamp duty) rate increases in April this year”.

From a year ago, the index is up 7.2 per cent, based on the Q2 flash estimate.

URA said that the sale transaction volume for Q2 2023 (up to mid-June) totalled 4,762 private housing units, which was up about 16 per cent from the Q1 2023 figure of 4,121 units amid a rise in the number of units launched for sale. However, the latest figure is a drop of about 30 per cent from the 6,811 units transacted in Q2 2022.

Prices of non-landed properties decreased by 0.5 per cent qoq in Q2 2023, a reversal from the 2.6 per cent increase in the previous quarter. Prices of landed properties increased marginally by 0.1 per cent in Q2 2023, significantly moderating from the 5.9 per cent increase in the previous quarter. The gain in landed home prices in Q2 2023 was the smallest in two years, URA said.

The drop in non-landed property prices was mainly driven by the city fringe or Rest of Central Region where prices fell by 2.6 per cent in Q2 2023 after rising 4.4 per cent in the previous quarter. In the prime areas or Core Central Region, non-landed property prices rose 0.3 per cent in Q2 2023, a moderation from the 0.8 per cent increase in the previous quarter.

Similarly, in the suburbs or Outside Central Region, the price increase moderated to 1.2 per cent from the 1.9 per cent increase in the previous quarter.

The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in contracts submitted for stamp duty payment and data on units sold by developers up till mid-June. The statistics will be updated on Jul 28, 2023, when URA releases its full set of real estate statistics for Q2 2023.

“Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution,” URA said.

In his Facebook post, Minister Lee said that price growth has also slowed on the public housing front. The Q2 2023 flash estimate for Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale flat prices showed an increase of 1.4 per cent, down from the 2.5 per cent quarterly average last year.

“We have also continued to increase housing supply to meet the demand. HDB is on track to launch 100,000 flats between 2021 and 2025. The confirmed list supply for private housing, at around 9,250 units for 2023, stands at the highest level in a decade. We will continue to keep a close watch on the property market, and adjust our policies as necessary,” he added.