Thailand
Global trade war risk impacts on Vietnamese economy
The Hanoitimes – A global trade war, if broke out, will affect negatively on the world’s economic and trade growth rate, and Vietnam is not an exception, experts said.
Under the war, Vietnam will likely find it hard to achieve growth targets as the country has integrated deeply into the global economy.
According to Tran Toan Thang, head of the World Economic Department of the National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast (NCIF) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment, no one wins in a trade war. All parties in this war will lose.
Thang forecast that a large-scale trade war will not likely occur as all parties are aware of the consequences. However, he said, minor conflicts can happen.
If the conflict occurred only between the United States and China, Vietnam would have a good chance to export to the United States, Thang said.
However, on the other hand, if China could not export to the United States, it would boost its exports to other countries, including Vietnam.
According to Nguyen Huy Do, marketing director at Vietnam-Italy Steel Co, Vietnam can increase exports to other markets when the Comprehensive Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) takes effect in the near future.
The CPTPP has 11 member countries. Vietnam has the most favorable conditions for exporting garments and steel, Do said, adding that through the CPTPP Vietnam will gain a good opportunity to export without challenge from its biggest competitor, China.
Economist Pham Chi Lan also suggested that Vietnamese firms should expand their partnership to at least three markets to avoid sole dependence on a particular market.
Such business strategy will help Vietnamese firms to survive and exploit new opportunities in the context of a global trade war risk, she said, suggesting that Vietnamese firms should increase its influence in other markets outside the United States and China, such as the European Union, reducing its dependence on the world’s two largest markets.
The establishment of the CPTPP without the United States’ participation is a good way to deal with the unpredictable policies of the United States and China at the moment, Lan said.
The CPTPP deal will help other economies to get to know each other, increase their cooperation and protect their economies, offsetting the damages caused by United States’ protectionism and China’s responses.
According to Lan, CPTPP is proving to be attractive to other economies that are not partners to the deal, such as South Korea and the United Kingdom.
On January 22 this year, United States President Donald Trump once again showed his determination to follow a protectionism policy by imposing protective duties on two imports – washing machines and solar panels.
The move was made in the context of the rapid growth of the solar panel manufacturing industry, expected to have a value of US$60 billion globally by 2022, according to Zion Market Research.
The new industry has become the focus of protectionism pursued by the United States, China and India, the three major rivals in the market.
India tried to apply measures to restrict imports of solar panels from the United States, but later has to remove them as violated WTO rules. The United States criticized China for providing subsidies to domestic solar panel manufacturers.
The US decision on imposing a protective duty is the next step in the war among powerful economies to scramble for market share and production advantages.
Thang forecast that a large-scale trade war will not likely occur as all parties are aware of the consequences. However, he said, minor conflicts can happen.
If the conflict occurred only between the United States and China, Vietnam would have a good chance to export to the United States, Thang said.
However, on the other hand, if China could not export to the United States, it would boost its exports to other countries, including Vietnam.
According to Nguyen Huy Do, marketing director at Vietnam-Italy Steel Co, Vietnam can increase exports to other markets when the Comprehensive Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) takes effect in the near future.
The CPTPP has 11 member countries. Vietnam has the most favorable conditions for exporting garments and steel, Do said, adding that through the CPTPP Vietnam will gain a good opportunity to export without challenge from its biggest competitor, China.
Economist Pham Chi Lan also suggested that Vietnamese firms should expand their partnership to at least three markets to avoid sole dependence on a particular market.
Such business strategy will help Vietnamese firms to survive and exploit new opportunities in the context of a global trade war risk, she said, suggesting that Vietnamese firms should increase its influence in other markets outside the United States and China, such as the European Union, reducing its dependence on the world’s two largest markets.
The establishment of the CPTPP without the United States’ participation is a good way to deal with the unpredictable policies of the United States and China at the moment, Lan said.
The CPTPP deal will help other economies to get to know each other, increase their cooperation and protect their economies, offsetting the damages caused by United States’ protectionism and China’s responses.
According to Lan, CPTPP is proving to be attractive to other economies that are not partners to the deal, such as South Korea and the United Kingdom.
On January 22 this year, United States President Donald Trump once again showed his determination to follow a protectionism policy by imposing protective duties on two imports – washing machines and solar panels.
The move was made in the context of the rapid growth of the solar panel manufacturing industry, expected to have a value of US$60 billion globally by 2022, according to Zion Market Research.
The new industry has become the focus of protectionism pursued by the United States, China and India, the three major rivals in the market.
India tried to apply measures to restrict imports of solar panels from the United States, but later has to remove them as violated WTO rules. The United States criticized China for providing subsidies to domestic solar panel manufacturers.
The US decision on imposing a protective duty is the next step in the war among powerful economies to scramble for market share and production advantages.
Source: http://www.hanoitimes.vn/economy/2018/04/81E0C423/global-trade-war-risk-impacts-on-vietnamese-economy/