Thailand
Vietnam’s GDP projected to touch 8% in Q1 2018
The Hanoitimes – Based on positive macroeconomic indicators in the first two months of 2018, Vietnam can be confident that its GDP growth in the first quarter of the year will be equivalent to the second half of 2017 and even tough 8 per cent in a good scenario.
In a report on updating Vietnam’s February economy released recently, Director of Saigon Securities Incorporate (SSI) Nguyen Duc Hung Linh cited some reasons for the positive forecast.
Firstly, Linh said, the country’s electronic industry will maintain a high growth rate in the first quarter this year as the Galaxy S9 was launched in late February, sooner than the launch of the Galaxy S8 in April 2017.
Secondly, the growth of the mining industry will be positive. In case it declines, the decreasing rate will be at a very low level.
Thirdly, service industries such as retail sales, catering and food services will remain a steady growth, he said.
According to Linh, it is important to note that the slow growth in the first half of 2017 will create a low base for high growth in the first half of 2018, adding that this will be difficult to repeat in the second half of the year.
However, he noted that a slowdown of FDI inflows should be paid special attention to enable issuing new policies aimed at reviving the inflows into Vietnam.
Linh also recommended that the recovery of the domestic firms is a positive signal and it is necessary to continue to have policies to promote the development of the firms.
“Supports should be given to domestic major firms to help them create spearheads for the country’s growth,” he said, adding that it is also important to seek and develop new growth drivers such as special administrative and economic zones, high-tech agriculture or tourism.
According to the SSI’s report, Vietnam’s industrial production index (IPI) in the first two months of 2018 expanded by 15.2 percent year-on-year, much higher than the growth of 2.4 percent recorded in the same period last year.
In the two-month period, the processing and manufacturing sector rose by 17.7 percent; electricity production and distribution up 11.2 percent; mining up 5.7 percent; and water supply, and waste and sewage treatment up 4.3 percent.
High production growth was reported in the fields of electronics, computers and optical products (38.3 percent), metal ore mining (25.3 percent), metal production (21.1 percent), furniture production (20 percent), and drainage and sewage treatment (20 percent).
Slight increases were seen in crude oil and natural gas exploitation (5 percent), water supply and treatment (4.5 percent), and tobacco production (2.9 percent).
Surges were also recorded in major industrial products such as television (73 percent), iron and steel (40 percent), powdered milk, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and fabric (20-23 percent).
All 63 provinces and cities across the country witnessed growth in the IPI. The central coastal province of Ha Tinh led the nation with IPI growth of 164 percent, followed by Bac Ninh (45 percent) and Hai Phong, Quang Nam, Vinh Phuc, Hai Duong, Da Nang, Quang Ninh, Hanoi, Thai Nguyen, Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Dong Nai and Ho Chi Minh City with growth rates ranging between 6-20 percent.
SSI also cited a General Statistics Office’s report as saying that Vietnam welcomed more than 2.86 million foreign visitors in the first two months of this year, surging 29.7 percent over the same period last year. Of the arrivals, 2.12 million came from Asian countries, up 35.8 percent from last year.
The country has pinned its hopes on the booming tourism industry driving its economic growth.
Secondly, the growth of the mining industry will be positive. In case it declines, the decreasing rate will be at a very low level.
Thirdly, service industries such as retail sales, catering and food services will remain a steady growth, he said.
According to Linh, it is important to note that the slow growth in the first half of 2017 will create a low base for high growth in the first half of 2018, adding that this will be difficult to repeat in the second half of the year.
However, he noted that a slowdown of FDI inflows should be paid special attention to enable issuing new policies aimed at reviving the inflows into Vietnam.
Linh also recommended that the recovery of the domestic firms is a positive signal and it is necessary to continue to have policies to promote the development of the firms.
“Supports should be given to domestic major firms to help them create spearheads for the country’s growth,” he said, adding that it is also important to seek and develop new growth drivers such as special administrative and economic zones, high-tech agriculture or tourism.
According to the SSI’s report, Vietnam’s industrial production index (IPI) in the first two months of 2018 expanded by 15.2 percent year-on-year, much higher than the growth of 2.4 percent recorded in the same period last year.
In the two-month period, the processing and manufacturing sector rose by 17.7 percent; electricity production and distribution up 11.2 percent; mining up 5.7 percent; and water supply, and waste and sewage treatment up 4.3 percent.
High production growth was reported in the fields of electronics, computers and optical products (38.3 percent), metal ore mining (25.3 percent), metal production (21.1 percent), furniture production (20 percent), and drainage and sewage treatment (20 percent).
Slight increases were seen in crude oil and natural gas exploitation (5 percent), water supply and treatment (4.5 percent), and tobacco production (2.9 percent).
Surges were also recorded in major industrial products such as television (73 percent), iron and steel (40 percent), powdered milk, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and fabric (20-23 percent).
All 63 provinces and cities across the country witnessed growth in the IPI. The central coastal province of Ha Tinh led the nation with IPI growth of 164 percent, followed by Bac Ninh (45 percent) and Hai Phong, Quang Nam, Vinh Phuc, Hai Duong, Da Nang, Quang Ninh, Hanoi, Thai Nguyen, Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Dong Nai and Ho Chi Minh City with growth rates ranging between 6-20 percent.
SSI also cited a General Statistics Office’s report as saying that Vietnam welcomed more than 2.86 million foreign visitors in the first two months of this year, surging 29.7 percent over the same period last year. Of the arrivals, 2.12 million came from Asian countries, up 35.8 percent from last year.
The country has pinned its hopes on the booming tourism industry driving its economic growth.
Source: http://www.hanoitimes.vn/economy/2018/03/81E0C28D/vietnam-s-gdp-projected-to-touch-8-in-q1-2018/