Poon said that the baht was under pressure from a risk-off market that is supporting the dollar. Also, the Covid-19 situation in China is deterring investment in Thailand and other Asian emerging markets.

Poon said the baht now risked testing a new resistance level of 34.75 after breaching 34.50. It would also face downward pressure from purchases of gold if the price goes down, he added.

However, weakening of the Thai currency would be limited unless Thailand suffered large foreign outflows, Poon said.

He said the downward direction of the baht might reverse in the short term following market reaction to April’s US inflation report and US Federal Reserve statements. If April inflation slows and the Fed declines to signal a rate rise, the dollar may weaken and the market return to a risk-on state, causing the baht to strengthen.

He advised businesses to use hedging tools such as options to manage risks in the highly volatile currency market.