Thailand: Dark day clouds growth outlook

• Feb 17, 2020

Feb 8, 2020 will be remembered as one of the darkest days in Thailand’s history. What initially appeared to be a tranquil weekend holiday turned to terrible tragedy as many lives were lost when a distressed soldier went on a shooting rampage in Nakhon Ratchasima province.

Jakrapanth Thomma was meeting with his commanding officer and the officer’s mother-in-law that Saturday to discuss a dispute when he opened fire, killing both of them.

But the calamity did not stop there. He then drove to the Surathampithak army camp, Wat Paa Sattharuam and Terminal 21 Korat shopping mall, gunning people down and live-streaming the shooting via social media until security forces killed him on Sunday morning.

There were 30 dead in total and 58 wounded in the shooting rampage.

Questions have flared up in the aftermath about the soldier’s motives and the army’s wheeling and dealing. Controversies surrounding media coverage and ethics when the rampage unfolded and the government’s reactions have also fuelled anger among the masses.

With Thailand’s economic growth outlook already crumbling from the economic slowdown, the baht’s strength and the coronavirus outbreak, dismal consumer sentiment is highly likely going forward as the country still struggles to come to terms with the unprecedented mass shooting.

‘MOUNTING INCOMPETENCE’

Looking deeper into the motive behind the soldier’s destructive rage, it has been revealed that he was deeply distressed over a housing deal involving his superior officer. This has brought attention to shady business dealings among army personnel.

It’s commonplace for army officers to do deals on the side because their official salaries are insufficient and because they have access to power and public resources that can be parlayed into private gain, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, an associate professor at Chulalongkorn University.

The military is one of the biggest landholders in some provinces, controlling vast bases that also can be mini-cities unto themselves, Reuters reported.

To address abuse of power by the entrenched hierarchical system, army chief Apirat Kongsompong said he would set up a direct line for soldiers who feel they are being exploited by superior officers.

But the identities of the claimants need to be known up front, raising questions about whether the move would lead to a backlash by superiors. Lower-rung army personnel would be afraid of the repercussions if their names were to ever become known.

“We have had more or less a military-backed government for nearly six years,” Assoc Prof Thitinan said. “It has been a lacklustre government that has shown mounting incompetence. This kind of government is supposed to be strong on order and stability. People are supposed to feel safer in exchange for less freedom.”

This tragedy should be another wake-up call for the army so that it becomes more professional, streamlined, better-paid and is back in the barracks, he said.

DISMAL SENTIMENT

“The recent mass shooting is the first such occurrence in Thailand,” said Paibul Kanokwattanawan, chief executive of The Mall Group. “We have not yet had any security measures to cope with such situation, and we cannot control it. However, we are ready to tighten our security and surveillance measures through 100 policemen we have hired both in uniform and plain clothes.”

According to Mr Paibul, the mass shooting has aggravated the retail business, which had already experienced a grave impact from the sharp drop in Chinese tourists, the strong baht and the coronavirus outbreak.

Mr Paibul said retail business in the first quarter of this year is expected to contract by as much as 10-20% from the same period last year due to a spate of negative factors.

“More than 10 billion baht worth of sales are estimated to disappear from the retail industry in the first quarter of this year,” he said.

Before the latest tragedy was taken into account, investor confidence in Thailand for the three months to April had fallen into bearish territory for the first time in four years, amid a grim tourism outlook and geopolitical tensions.

Business confidence also fell for the 11th straight month in January, with the virus outbreak adding to concerns.

Hasadin Suwatanapongched, president of the Nakhon Ratchasima chapter under the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said the latest shooting rampage could put pressure on the local economy psychologically, with private consumption and tourism sentiment the primary casualties.

“Many people are not in a positive mood to spend their money and they are still reeling from the frightening situation,” Mr Hasadin said. “They will be more cautious and opt to stay indoors after the shooting.”

He said the government is supporting local business sentiment through some short-term measures to stimulate the overall economy, such as an extension for debt-payment due dates and purchase incentives at shopping malls and stores located in provincial areas.

“The government should accelerate in building up overall confidence — both consumers and businesses — in Nakhon Ratchasima,” Mr Hasadin said.

For the long term, the government should carry out more tailored measures to inject its fiscal budget directly at the provincial level because the current measures have yet to improve the economy or stimulate people’s spending, he said.

ADDRESSING LOOPHOLES

In the wake of the mass shooting at Terminal 21 Korat, nearly all retailers have beefed up security measures and urgent programmes to train staff to help shoppers survive in the event of an emergency.

Some retailers plan to apply more electronic devices, and many vow to construct new channels for shoppers to escape apart from fire escapes or fire doors.

Prasert Sriuranpong, managing director of Siam Retail Development Co, the operator of Terminal 21 Korat, said the company is using the recent tragedy as a case study to raise security at all retail complexes under its group to the highest level.

Notable shopping malls operated by Siam Retail Development include Terminal 21 Korat and Fashion Island. Terminal 21 Asok and Terminal 21 Pattaya are operated by LH Mall & Hotel Co Ltd (LHMH).

Land and Houses Plc (LH) is not directly related to Siam Retail Development, but invests through LHMH in LH Shopping Centres Trust for the management rights of rental areas at Terminal 21 complexes.

“Our weak points in each area will be addressed in the near future to make our security measures more comprehensive,” Mr Prasert said. “But for urgent and short-term measures, we will first train our staff at Terminal 21 in Nakhon Ratchasima about evacuation before arranging training programmes to cover our 500 tenants.”

Similar training programmes will be organised to cover all retail complexes in the longer term.

Terminal 21 Korat is now 99% ready to return to its normal operation, except the area of Foodland Supermarket and Took Lae Dee restaurant, which will undergo renovation to come up with a new image in a bid to expel bad memories of the mass killing.

“Upon being back in business, we have tightened security measures to assure customers, tenants and the public that Terminal 21 Korat is safe and well-prepared for the reopening,” Mr Prasert said.

The company has also been offering relief measures to victims and those affected with financial and emotional support. The measures include a 100,000-baht cash handout to each family of those who were killed or injured during the incident, and scholarships worth 50,000 baht to each of the children of deceased victims.

The mall is also exempting 500 tenants from paying rental fees for one month, while providing support in marketing, venue decoration, campaign launches and promotional activities to recreate a delightful shopping experience at Terminal 21 Korat.

All activities aim to restore and regain confidence from both tenants and customers, Mr Prasert said.

STICKING TO STANDARD

Jintana Phongpakdee, director of corporate communications at Impact Exhibition Management Co, said the company has already implemented security measures under the international venue standard, which is TIS 22300 Mice Security Management.

Before the shooting rampage happened in Nakhon Ratchasima, Impact strictly controlled the safety process for organisers and visitors amid the coronavirus outbreak by notifying the management team beforehand.

Under this process, the communication team can use this information to convince all partners and assure guests about the standard of meeting halls.

Ms Jintana said the market is seeing a bit of a slowdown due to prevailing negative factors. The total number of events so far is 258, lower than the same period last year, when Impact hosted 289 shows. The decline is largely attributed to fear of infection with the coronavirus.

There have been 66 shows booked for February and 75 shows scheduled for March. Other organisers of the February and March events have mostly postponed their shows and exhibitions to May, led by concerts of Chinese singers and movie stars, as well as incentive groups from China, as that country is the epicentre of the outbreak and serious containment policies remain in place.

Despite a slew of ill-fated happenings, Impact still sees growth in trade fairs targeting domestic consumers because retailers seem to want to pump up sales and revenue by arranging off-store spaces to reach out to shoppers in many areas.

“Some organisers have evaluated that the cancellation will induce more losses to their businesses,” Ms Jintana said. “With the number of shows still being scheduled as planned, we have to follow the practices of international safety and security standards, which we have already applied.”

Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1859094/dark-day-clouds-growth-outlook