Thailand
Malaysia’s Consumer Price Index in focus this week
Inflation in focus
THE Statistics Department is expected to release the consumer price index (CPI) data for May 2021 on Friday.
Analysts expect inflation to rise 3.6% in May.
The CPI increased 4.7% in April 2021 to 123.1 against 117.6 in the same month of the preceding year.
The CPI for the period of January to April 2021 rose 1.6% as compared to the same period last year.
Bank Negara is expected to announce its international reserves as at June 15, tomorrow. The international reserves of Bank Negara amounted to US$110.9bil (RM459.13bil) as at May 31. The reserves position is sufficient to finance 8.4 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times total short-term external debt.
Central bank meetings
THE Bank of Thailand (BoT) and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will be holding their policy meetings on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
China’s May one-year and five-year loan prime rate (LPR) fixings will be announced today.According to a Bloomberg poll, all the analysts expect no change to BoT’s 0.5% policy rate. UOB Global Economics & Markets Research kept its call for BoT to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% for the rest of 2021.
Thailand’s economic growth is likely to be uneven, amid the pronounced downside risks should Covid-19 worsens.
UOB says that if the macroeconomic fundamentals remained unexpectedly subdued into the second half of 2021, a 25 basis points rate cut could materialise.
The research house believes that the BSP will keep its powder dry and use its ammunition with caution as the year progresses.
Hence, UOB expects the overnight reverse repurchase rate to be kept at 2.00% for the rest of the year. China’s benchmark one-year LPR is expected to stay flat at 3.85% for the rest of 2021.
Flash PMIs
JUNE flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMIs), which will be published for the United States, the UK, eurozone, as well as Japan and Australia, offer an early view into economic conditions in the month.
According to IHS Markit, May flash PMIs showed diverging economic momentum between strengthening in the United States and European nations against renewed weakness in Japan.
While various Asia-Pacific countries came under the threat of rising new Covid-19 waves, the United States and Europe are seeing vaccine “dividends”, according to IHS.
As the worst appears to be over in Japan, it will be of interest to track how the Japanese economy fared through the flash PMIs.
The US PMI will also be in focus following the latest Federal open market committee meeting.
Source: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/06/21/malaysia039s-consumer-price-index-in-focus-this-week