Thailand
IMF forecasts Vietnam’s economy growth at 6.6%
The Hanoitimes – Vietnam’s economy is projected to grow by 6.6% this year and 6.5% in 2019, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s latest World Economic Outlook report on April 17.
The growth figure is around the percentage forecasted by the World Bank in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update report released in April 12, albeit some potential to surprise on the upside in the short run, especially if the global recovery remains intact.
In 2017, Vietnam achieved a 10-year high growth rate at 6.81%, exceeding the target of 6.7% set by the National Assembly. The uptick in growth reflects a strong rebound of the agriculture sector, rising global and domestic demand that boosted manufacturing and trade, coupled with robust foreign investment inflows, said World Bank.
Specifically, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO), the agro-forestry-fisheries sector expanded by 2.9%, a strong recovery from a mere 1.4% in 2016. The industry and construction sector grew by 8%, well above last year’s 7.4% – driven mainly by a 14.4% growth in the manufacturing sector, which offsets a 7.1% contraction in the mining sector.
Growth also picked up in the services sector, expanding at 7.4% due to strong tourism receipts and buoyant private consumption, which lifted retail sales by 9.5%.
Along with high economic growth, Vietnam’s growth quality also witnessed improvement, in which productivity in 2017 increased 6%, according to the GSO.
The growth model is gradually shifting toward sustainability, from mining natural resources to manufacturing, processing and services. In 2018, the government target growth target at 6.7%, along with average inflation rate of 4%.
The economy also posted its strongest first-quarter growth in 10 years, expanding 7.38% annually in January-March, according to the General Statistics Office. Notably, agriculture saw a significant increase of more than 4%, doubling that of the same period last year.
Industry – construction are considered the driving force for economic growth with increasing rate of 11%. Additionally, the average consumer price index is kept under control at 2.82%.
IMF also stressed growth in emerging and developing Asia is expected to remain strong, which is unchanged from the October forecast, with the short-term firming of growth driven by a recovery from the transitory effects of the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the national goods and services tax, and supported by strong private consumption growth.
The upswing in global investment and trade continued in the second half of 2017. At 3.8%, global growth in 2017 was the fastest since 2011. With financial conditions still supportive, global growth is expected to tick up to a 3.9% rate in both 2018 and 2019.
Among the ASEAN-5 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam), broadly stable growth is projected for the group, at 5.3% in 2018 and 5.4% in 2019 (compared with 5.3% in 2017).
For the Asian region, IMF expected the average growth to bet at 6.5% in period 2018 – 2019, which remains the most important driving force of world economy. Notably, Chinese and Indian economies will be at 6.6% and 7.4%, respectively in 2018, while these figures will be around 6.4% and 7.8%, accordingly in 2019.
Specifically, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO), the agro-forestry-fisheries sector expanded by 2.9%, a strong recovery from a mere 1.4% in 2016. The industry and construction sector grew by 8%, well above last year’s 7.4% – driven mainly by a 14.4% growth in the manufacturing sector, which offsets a 7.1% contraction in the mining sector.
Growth also picked up in the services sector, expanding at 7.4% due to strong tourism receipts and buoyant private consumption, which lifted retail sales by 9.5%.
Along with high economic growth, Vietnam’s growth quality also witnessed improvement, in which productivity in 2017 increased 6%, according to the GSO.
The growth model is gradually shifting toward sustainability, from mining natural resources to manufacturing, processing and services. In 2018, the government target growth target at 6.7%, along with average inflation rate of 4%.
The economy also posted its strongest first-quarter growth in 10 years, expanding 7.38% annually in January-March, according to the General Statistics Office. Notably, agriculture saw a significant increase of more than 4%, doubling that of the same period last year.
Industry – construction are considered the driving force for economic growth with increasing rate of 11%. Additionally, the average consumer price index is kept under control at 2.82%.
IMF also stressed growth in emerging and developing Asia is expected to remain strong, which is unchanged from the October forecast, with the short-term firming of growth driven by a recovery from the transitory effects of the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the national goods and services tax, and supported by strong private consumption growth.
The upswing in global investment and trade continued in the second half of 2017. At 3.8%, global growth in 2017 was the fastest since 2011. With financial conditions still supportive, global growth is expected to tick up to a 3.9% rate in both 2018 and 2019.
Among the ASEAN-5 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam), broadly stable growth is projected for the group, at 5.3% in 2018 and 5.4% in 2019 (compared with 5.3% in 2017).
For the Asian region, IMF expected the average growth to bet at 6.5% in period 2018 – 2019, which remains the most important driving force of world economy. Notably, Chinese and Indian economies will be at 6.6% and 7.4%, respectively in 2018, while these figures will be around 6.4% and 7.8%, accordingly in 2019.
Source: http://www.hanoitimes.vn/economy/2018/04/81E0C532/imf-forecasts-vietnam-s-economy-growth-at-6-6/