ADB raises 2022 economic growth projection for Vietnam to 7.5%
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its economic growth forecast for Vietnam this year to 7.5%, despite regional and global gloom, the bank said in a regular supplement to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022 released on December 14.
In its ADO update for September, the bank forecast that the Vietnamese economy would expand by 6.5% this year.
The ADB said in its latest report that it has also revised the Vietnamese inflation forecast for the year down to 3.5% from 3.8% as projected in September.
ADB experts noted that while the local economy is currently performing well amid global uncertainties, risks to the country’s economic outlook have increased.
They said although local trade continues to expand, there are indicators of weakening global demand for the nation’s exports. Moving forward, growth for 2023 has therefore been adjusted down to 6.3% as major trade partners weaken.
The bank also lowered its economic growth forecasts for developing Asia and the Pacific amid an increasingly negative global outlook.
The regional economy is therefore set to grow by 4.2% this year and 4.6% next year, slightly down from its September forecasts of 4.3% in 2022 and 4.9% in 2023.
According to the bank, monetary policy tightening by central banks both regionally globally, the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict, and recurring lockdowns in China continue to hamper Asia’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Restrictions under the “zero-COVID” approach, along with a struggling property market, have led to another downgrade of China’s growth outlook.
“Asia and the Pacific will continue to recover, but worsening global conditions mean that the region’s momentum is losing some steam as we head into the new year,” said Albert Park, chief economist of the ADB. He added, “Governments will need to work together more closely to overcome the lingering challenges of COVID-19, combat the effects of high food and energy prices—especially on the poor and vulnerable—and ensure a sustainable, inclusive economic recovery.”
The ADB lowered its forecast for inflation in developing regions in Asia and the Pacific this year to 4.4% from 4.5%. However, the bank raised its projection for next year to 4.2% from 4.0%, largely due to lingering inflationary pressure from energy and food.
The Chinese economy is forecast to expand by 3.0% this year compared with a previous projection of 3.3%. The forecast for next year has duly been cut to 4.3% from 4.5% as a result of the global slowdown.
Elsewhere, the growth forecast for the Caucasus and Central Asia this year was upgraded to 4.8% from 3.9%, while the projection for the Pacific was raised to 5.3% from 4.7% due to the strong recovery of the tourism sector in Fiji.