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Singapore employment rises 75,600 in Q3 but momentum may be easing
THERE are early signs that Singapore’s labour market improvement is slowing as economic growth eases, even though employment continued to grow in the third quarter of 2022, according to advance figures from the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) on Friday (Oct 28).
Total employment – excluding migrant domestic workers – rose 75,600 on the quarter before, extending the robust growth of 66,500 in the previous quarter. But there was a “slight uptick” in unemployment rates and an increase in retrenchments, though both indicators were still on par with pre-Covid levels.
“In the coming months, a deteriorating global economic environment, higher global inflation, as well as geopolitical tensions, will impact the labour market,” the ministry said, adding that while overall hiring sentiments remain optimistic, there could be some unevenness in employment growth across sectors in the final quarter.
September’s rise in total employment brought it above pre-pandemic levels by 1.7 per cent. Some 33,000 of the net jobs added in the quarter were in the services sector, excluding migrant domestic workers. Employment rose by 30,500 in construction and 12,100 in manufacturing sector.
Non-resident employment led the expansion, growing steadily across all sectors in a continued rebound towards pre-Covid levels. The increases mainly came from the construction and manufacturing sectors, which are more reliant on foreign workers.
Manpower demand in consumer-facing retail trade and food and beverage services rose when pandemic curbs were eased, but this was alleviated by rises in non-resident employment in those industries, keeping pace with the previous quarter.
Resident employment also rose in Q3, but at a slower pace, though no details were provided. Figures for resident and non-resident employment will be released in mid-December, along with sectoral breakdowns, job vacancy numbers, labour turnover, and re-entry rates among retrenched residents.
For residents, industry trends were mixed, with employment gains coming mainly from outward-oriented sectors such as information and communications, professional services, and financial services.
Administrative and support services saw sustained decline, “partly reflecting the gradual scale-back of Covid-related occupations such as safe-distancing ambassadors and vaccination centre workers”, said MOM.
In Q4, employment demand in tourism and consumer-related sectors is expected to remain supported by the recovery in international visitor arrivals as well as year-end festive season hiring. But trade-reliant sectors are expected to see subdued growth with weakening external demand.
Unemployment rates had trended down to a 6-year low in August but edged up slightly in September, though still in the pre-Covid range. The overall unemployment rate was 2 per cent, up from 1.9 per cent in August.
The resident unemployment rate rose to 2.9 per cent from 2.7 per cent before, while citizen unemployment rose to 3.1 per cent, from 2.8 per cent. There were 70,900 unemployed residents in September, up from 69,300 in June.
Retrenchments were also on the rise in Q3, increasing to 1,600 from Q2’s all-time low of 830. “The retrenchments were from manufacturing, mainly due to discontinuation of product lines, as well as services, mainly due to business reorganisation or restructuring,” the ministry said.
Based on forward-looking data from polls, firms remain optimistic about hiring, with a slight uptrend in the share of firms looking to hire. “This will further support employment growth in the final quarter of 2022, as employers hire more actively for the year-end festive season,” MOM said.
Amid rising inflation, there has been global discussion of wage-price spirals, in which rising consumer prices spur workers to demand higher wages, thus further increasing business costs. But the risk of this in Singapore remains low for now, said MOM, noting that firms remain prudent about raising wages, with only one in four intending to do so in the next three months.
Source: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapore-employment-rises-75600-in-q3-but-momentum-may-be-easing