Thailand
Malaysia: The week ahead – CPI, GDP, IPI, trade figures
CPI to decline
THIS week brings a quieter flow of data with the main focus on consumer price index (CPI). The Statistic Department is expected to release the inflation data for June on Wednesday.
CPI inflation has been nil to negative in Japan, Malaysia and Singapore.
The CPI fell 2.9% in May from a year earlier, marking a third straight month of decline.
The result matched April’s decline, and was slightly more than the median estimate of a 2.8% decline by a Bloomberg survey of economists.
On a month-on-month basis, May’s CPI grew 0.3% from April.
For the January-to-May period, the CPI decreased by 0.7% compared with the same period last year, led by a 9.1% decline in the transport sector.
Bank Negara will also be releasing its data on international reserves as at July 15 on Wednesday.
South Korea GDP
SOUTH KOREA is next in line to report its gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter on Thursday.
ING Asia expects a 2.5% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP contraction. This follows a 1.3% fall in the first quarter, which should confirm a technical recession, marking the first recession since the SARS pandemic in 2003, and it’s likely to be worse.
UOB Global Economics and Markets Research is maintaining its forecast for GDP to contract 1.8% year-on-year in the second quarter (from +1.4% in first quarter).
Bloomberg median estimate is a larger decline of 2% year-on-year.
After the second quarter plunge, UOB still expects its GDP to contract, albeit at a slower pace at -1.2% year-on-year in the third quarter and -0.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter for a full-year GDP contraction of 0.5% (2019: 20%).
The other key data will be South Korea’s first 20 days’ trade data for July.
Singapore IPI
FOLLOWING the historical decline in second quarter GDP and a surprise surge in June non-oil domestic exports data, market attention will be on the June industrial production data.
UOB said based on second quarter GDP advance estimates, the manufacturing sector expanded by 2.5% year-on-year from 8.2% year-on-year in the first quarter.
Market consensus is more conservative and expects a decline instead of the implied rate of increase. Bloomberg estimates a contraction of -3.6% year-on-year from -7.4% in May.
Taiwan trade figures
KEY Taiwanese data this week include export order, unemployment rate and industrial production data for the month of June.
Bloomberg estimates Taiwan’s June export order to grow 1% year-on-year from 0.4% in May.
Taiwan-based makers received export orders totalling US$38.89bil in May 2020, increasing 0.9% sequentially and 0.4% year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Bloomberg estimates the unemployment rate to grow 4.21% from 4.16% in May.
Source: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/07/20/the-week-ahead—cpi-gdp-ipi-trade-figures