Thailand
Thailand: Export forecasts unchanged
Shippers are maintaining their export growth forecast of 2-3% this year, citing myriad risks such as the possible negative impact of uncertain trade policies under US President Donald Trump.
Nopporn Thepsithar, president of Thai National Shippers’ Council, said higher shipments in January are encouraging signs that still need close monitoring.
He said higher exports came within the range predicted by the council, which expected January’s exports to grow by more than 5%, partially due to a low base in export figures during January last year and low oil prices.
Mr Nopporn said the country’s exports are expected to grow by 1-2% in the first quarter, more than 2% in the second quarter and 3-4% in the third quarter.
The Commerce Ministry reported on Monday that the country’s exports rose 8.8% year-on-year in January to UScopy7.1 billion (596 billion baht), boosted by recovering world trade, a gradual recovery of the global economy and higher oil and gold prices. Shipments fared well in almost all key markets, including the US, Europe, Japan, Asean, China and South Asia.
Only those to Australia and the Middle East fell.
China was the market with the strongest growth, at 30.8% in January, followed by South Asia (24%), Europe (10.4%), Asean (10.3%) and the US (9.5%).
Shipments to the Middle East tumbled 19.2%, while those to Australia were down 0.3%.
In January, imports rose 5.2% year-on-year to copy6.2 billion, yielding a trade surplus of $826 million.
Higher performance prompted the ministry to raise its export target to more than 3.5% growth this year.
According to Mr Nopporn, as giant retailers in Thailand’s key markets are changing their advance purchase orders to a shorter period, the Thai government is being urged to pay more attention to demand chain analysis, particularly in target markets such as the US, the EU, China, Japan and Asean.
Exporters also called on the government to pay more heed to compliance with the World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement, which came into force on Feb 22 after two-thirds of WTO members ratified the pact.
The agreement aims to cut customs-related red tape, easing the flow of trade between countries by simplifying customs procedures, speeding up the clearance of goods, supporting cooperation among customs officials and otherwise making it quicker and more efficient for goods to cross borders.
According to Mr Nopporn, Thailand is ready to comply immediately with 131 covenants and has requested one more year to comply with 12 covenants.
However, he said once the council thoroughly studied the WTO’s “Trade Facilitation Agreement: A Training Manual”, prepared by the International Trade Centre, it found that Thailand still failed to comply with a number of suggestions and related international standards.
Wallop Vitanakorn, vice-president of the TNSC, said the council expects shipments to contract by 4% in February and stay flat in March, as the higher shipments in January were driven by gold and the political situation of key trading partners, including France and Germany, is uncertain.
Source: http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1206613/export-forecasts-unchanged