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The week ahead – Trade figures, GDP data, Singapore CPI, US earnings,
Trade data takes centre stage
THIS holiday-shortened week will see the Statistics Department releasing the external trade statistics for December 2020 on Friday. The market will be closed on Thursday in conjunction with Thaipusam celebration.
The department will also be releasing the producer price index on Wednesday.
Economists expect exports in December 2020 to grow 3.9% while imports to contract about 5%. They also projected a trade surplus of about RM15bil.
In November 2020, Malaysia’s exports rose by 4.3% compared with the same month in 2019, registering a total value of RM84.4bil.
Imports fell 9% to RM67.61bil while total trade shrank by 2% to RM152.04bil.
Trade surplus amounted to RM16.82bil, surging by 151.6%, and was the highest trade surplus thus far for the month of November.
GDP data
TAIWAN, South Korea, Hong Kong, India and the Philippines are expected to release their gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2020.
According to a median forecast of 14 economists polled by Reuters, South Korea is expected to have expanded by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in the October-December period from the previous quarter.
Its growth in the third quarter at 2.1% was the fastest quarterly pace since the third quarter of 2009.
ING, in a report, said the low-base year effect seems to be the only hope of a little less negative growth in Hong Kong.
“That said, our house view of steep GDP contraction in Q4, by -5.0% year-on-year than -3.5% in Q3, is probably a reflection of this economy losing its lustre as the world’s gateway to China, ” it said.
It said Taiwan continued to buck the region-wide negative GDP trend in the last quarter of 2020.
Not only staying in the positive territory but its growth also gained further traction, to the research house house forecast of 4.2% year-on-year in Q4 from 3.9% in Q3.
ING added that accelerating exports are driving the growth – a trend hinging on how the global semiconductor cycle pans out this year. As of now, it seems to be in full swing, given the strong electronics exports in December.
Singapore CPI, industrial output
SINGAPORE is expected to announce its consumer price index (CPI) for December today and manufacturing output tomorrow.
The republic’s deflation eased in November, with both core and headline inflation at -0.1% year-on-year, compared to -0.2% in October.
Bloomberg estimates its inflation to grow 0.2% month-on-month and to contract 0.1% year-on-year.
Singapore also reports industrial production data, which will indicate a likely direction of revision to the -3.8% year-on-year advance Q4 GDP estimate released earlier this month, according to ING. Also, look out for Singapore’s jobs report for the fourth quarter, which should show an unchanged unemployment rate at 3.6%.
US earnings reports
THIS week will be another busy week for corporate America. Over 100 S&P 500 companies are due to release their earnings.
Apple is set to report its fiscal first quarter 2021 earnings on Wednesday. Tesla, Microsoft, and Starbucks are among the companies expected to release their results.
Source: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/01/25/the-week-ahead—trade-figures-gdp-data-s039pore-cpi-us-earnings