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Thailand: Shippers maintain 1.5% contraction forecast for exports
Exporters are maintaining their forecast for outbound shipments to contract by 1.5% this year, blaming the world’s slowing economy, the protracted trade war and the stronger baht.
Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairwoman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, said the US suspension of trade preferences for Thailand under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) has added to the gloomy prospects for exports.
The export forecast assumes that the baht averages 33 to the US dollar.
As of Nov 3, the baht stood at 30.15-30.66 against the greenback.
The council forecasts next year’s exports to recover to marginal growth of 0-1%.
The Commerce Ministry reported on Sept 21 that customs-cleared outbound shipments shrank by 1.4% year-on-year in September but improved from a 4% plunge in August, boosted by higher shipments of industrial products.
Shipments of agricultural and agro-industrial products fell by 3.1% in September to $3.17 billion, led by rice (-32.2%), cassava products (-35.2%), rubber (-15.4%) and frozen and processed shrimp (-10.5%).
Shipments of industrial products rebounded to grow 0.2% in September to $16.6 billion, while gold gained 111%, motorcycles and parts 31.5%, furniture and parts 15.9%, air conditioners and parts 15.1%, automobiles and parts 5.4%, and jewellery and accessories (excluding gold) 0.7%. Exports of oil-related products contracted 16.2%, while computers and parts shipments fell 12.3%.
Exports to the US maintained positive momentum, while those to Japan, China, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Latin America bounced back in September.
For the first nine months, exports fell 2.1% year-on-year to $187 billion, with imports down 3.7% at $179 billion, for a surplus of $7.38 billion.
Ms Ghanyapad said exports still confront myriad challenges, including the global slowdown, the US-China trade war, US tariffs on EU goods, Brexit uncertainty and the latest GSP cut on 573 Thai goods.
“Shippers are keeping a close watch on the latest round of the China-US trade talks, to see if they offer positive signs,” Ms Ghanyapad said.
Beijing and Washington spoke last Friday of progress in trade talks, and US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Sunday that licences for US firms to sell components to China’s blacklisted Huawei Technologies Co will come shortly.
Washington has effectively banned federal agencies from buying Huawei telecom equipment and barred US companies from doing business with Huawei, citing national security.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1788074/shippers-maintain-1-5-contraction-forecast-for-exports