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Local vaccination drive may help economy beat ASEAN neighbours
Low vaccination rates and rising Coronavirus cases are likely to hurt a nascent revival in regional economies, according to some of the world’s leading banks.
HSBC has cut its annual growth forecast for Vietnam to 6.1 percent this year, from an April estimate of 6.6 percent expansion. In January, the bank predicted 7.6 percent growth.
It says the services sector is suffering as the country goes through its fourth wave of Coronavirus infections, only contributing 20 percent to growth from 45 percent before the pandemic started.
“Emerging markets like Vietnam will likely wait for a long time to see a meaningful pick-up in domestic consumption until the job market achieves a fuller and sustained recovery,” the report said, adding that HSBC still remains optimistic about the country’s longer-term economic prospects.
COVID-19 infections in Vietnam are at their peak, according to the Reuters World Coronavirus Tracker, reaching an average of 829 new infections per day. The country has administered nearly 4 million vaccines, only enough for 2.1 percent of the population, assuming every person needs two doses.
Other ASEAN members are also being hit hard by a low immunisation rate and another wave of infections. JP Morgan says the Philippines and Thailand are among five emerging economies most vulnerable to the Delta variant of Coronavirus.
While the mutation may be less deadly than other strains, the bank says high infection rates will put pressure on the healthcare system, prompting governments to reimpose restrictions.
Thailand’s Covid infections have spiked to a new peak, with a daily average of 6,199, according to the Reuters tracker. The country has vaccinated more than 11.6 million people – 8.3 percent of the population.
The surge in cases is threatening government plans to reopen the country to foreign tourists. Last month the Thai Prime Minister set a 120-day target to fully reopen the country and the island of Phuket is already allowing foreigners to visit without going into quarantine. Tourists must have negative Coronavirus tests on arrival, but one traveller has since tested positive.
New infections in the Philippines are around half as high as April’s peak at an average of 5,321 a day, Reuters says. The country has vaccinated more than 12 million people – 5.6 percent of the population.
“The Philippines, Peru, South Africa, Thailand and Colombia face the longest journeys back to pre-pandemic levels of mobility, while Singapore, Turkey, India and Brazil have the shortest journeys,” JPMorgan said.
While daily infections are near their peak in Singapore, the average rate is still very low at 11 per day. More than half the population has been fully vaccinated.
In Cambodia, Prime Minister Hun Sen warned last week of the risk of a third spike in Coronavirus cases. The daily average is just off its peak at an average of 953 new cases a day.
However, the Kingdom’s vaccination programme has been proceeding at a far faster rate than most of its ASEAN neighbours. More than 8 million doses have been administered, enough to immunise about a quarter of the population.
Last month the World Bank said the Cambodian economy would grow 4 percent this year after a 3.1 percent contraction in 2020.
Source: https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50891684/local-vaccination-drive-may-help-economy-beat-asean-neighbours/