Thailand
Thailand: TMB: Flood toll may run to B27.4bn
Severe flooding in the South is estimated to cost businesses 27.4 billion baht, with rubber farmers hit the hardest, according to TMB Analytics.
Of the total 27.4 billion baht in damages, 19.1 billion is to the rubber business, 3.53 billion to the tourism sector, 2.94 billion to the palm oil business, 751 million to fisheries, 838 to shrimp farming and the rest to agricultural chemicals, the research unit of TMB Bank said in its latest report.
The TMB Analytics flood damage estimate is greater than that of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC), which put losses at 22.4 billion from heavy flooding in 12 provinces during Jan 1-10. The UTCC forecasts that the flood will trim 1.2% off the region’s economic growth, which was forecast to be 3.2% earlier.
Flooding has damaged transport and dampened rubber supply by 281,000 tonnes — representing 6.3% of the country’s annual rubber production, the report said, adding that the supply constraint forces rubber sheet, smoked rubber and latex manufacturers to temporarily halt their production process. Thailand’s southern region is a major rubber-producing area.
TMB Analytics estimates that the flood will slash palm oil output by 500,000 tonnes or 4.8% of the country’s annual production and raw palm oil supply may temporarily fall short of demand.
Palm oil plantations in Krabi, Surat Thani and Chumphon provinces have been hit hard, the report said.
For shrimp farming, TMB Analytics estimates that the flooding cut shrimp supply by 4,500 tonnes and it could take around 3-4 months for the business to turn back to normalcy.
Although the west coast of the South was spared heavy flooding, tourism in the area has been hurt as tourists cancelled their bookings, the report said.
In Phuket alone, forgone income from tourism business amounts to 1.2 billion baht.
If the water level recedes and the situation returns to normal before next month, the damage could be less than 24.7 billion baht, the report said.
TMB Analytics said the southern economy will recover quickly, thanks to spending on repairs from both the government and private sector and high rubber prices.
Source: http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1181529/tmb-flood-toll-may-run-to-b27-4bn