Thailand
Thailand: K-Research ups GDP forecast to 3.7% growth
Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) has emerged as the latest to jump on the economic growth bandwagon by increasing its forecast to 3.7% this year from 3.4% after stronger than expected export growth.
The research house also raised Thailand’s export growth projection significantly to 7% this year from 3.8%, in line with the global economic recovery.
Thailand’s export growth forecast is expected to be in the single digits, well below the range of 12.9-21.3% projected for other Asean countries, as structural problems contribute to the slower pace of export growth, said Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, head of research.
The Commerce Ministry reported Thai outbound shipments grew by 8.9% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2017.
The Bank of Thailand late last month raised its forecast for the country’s GDP growth to 3.8% this year, up from 3.5%. The central bank also increased its export growth forecast for this year to 8% from 5%.
Improving momentum of private investment is another factor expected to lend support to the Thai economy this year, she said.
K-Research increased its 2017 private investment growth estimate from 0.5%, to 1.5%, but revised down its state investment growth forecast from 8.5% to 5% due to slowing investment and budget disbursement for some projects.
Improving economic momentum is expected to continue next year, but the research house needs to form a clearer export forecast, particularly for commodity prices.
Public investment under the government’s road map is another key factor set to provide a boost to the Thai economy next year.
“It’s too early to say whether the Thai economy will be able to expand at its growth potential of 4% next year.[We] will need to follow up on the public investment and export situation,” she said.
In another development, Kangana Chockpisansin, another head of research, said improving corporate loan growth since the third quarter of this year reflected that private investment may be picking up.
The research centre predicted corporate loans would grow by 3.6% in the third quarter and 3.5% in the final quarter, rising from 0.7% in the first quarter and 2.2% in the second.
K-Research maintained its 2017 total loan growth forecast at 4%, as low farm income could dampen demand for retail loans.
She said non-performing loans in the banking industry are expected to peak at 3.06% this quarter and decline to 2.98% by the year-end, in accordance with rising economic growth momentum.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1337355/k-research-ups-gdp-forecast-to-3-7-growth