Thailand
Thailand: Exports forecast to ease in final quarter
Exports are expected to contract by 1-3% in the fourth quarter year-on-year because of slowing global demand, according to the national shipping trade group.
Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), said yesterday the value of Thai shipments may fall to an average of US$23.5 billion a month in November and December after the value of the country’s customs-cleared exports contracted by 4.4% year-on-year in October to $21.7 billion.
He said exports remain a key driver of the country’s economic growth and are still expected to rise 7-8% for the full year and increase by 2-3% in 2023.
The Commerce Ministry reported on Nov 28 the value of customs-cleared exports contracted for the first time in 20 months in October, dropping 4.4% year-on-year from October last year to $21.7 billion.
Imports decreased by 2.1% to $22.3 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $596 million.
For the first 10 months of 2022, exports expanded by 9.1% to $243 billion, while imports rose by 18.3% to $259 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $15.5 billion.
The Commerce Ministry attributed lower exports in October to the tight monetary policy to curb inflation among major trading partners, which affected purchasing power and economic activity.
“Next year, Thai exporters have to look for new markets, especially the Middle East, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam and markets still posting continuous growth, such as India, to substitute for slowing markets,” said Mr Chaichan.
“Saudi Arabia, in particular, is expected to offer healthy export growth of 20% in 2023 to $2 billion.”
He said shippers should brace for a spate of risk factors next year, especially high rates of inflation globally, persistent shortages of raw materials such as semiconductors, and price volatility for certain raw materials such as wheat, soybeans, maize, sunflower seeds and fertiliser.
The council proposed the Bank of Thailand maintain baht stability and policy rates at appropriate levels for as long as possible to curb the impact on manufacturers’ production costs.
The government is also being urged to cap the fuel tariff or adjust it gradually for both the manufacturing and household sectors to prevent any negative impact on the two sectors.
Financial support should be provided to upgrade products related to environmental protection, which aligns with the government’s bio-, circular and green economic development model, said the council.
The TNSC also called on the government to speed up free trade talks with potential dialogue partners such as the European Union, the UK and Turkey, as well as the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific, a regional economic integration effort aimed at stimulating trade and investment.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2454580/exports-forecast-to-ease-in-final-quarter