Poon said the Thai currency could weaken further but the fall would slow and cause the baht to swing sideways as hope emerges over peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. He noted that investors did not rush to sell risk assets even after recent negotiations failed.

He added that foreign investors’ moves for Thai assets will be an important factor in setting the baht’s direction. He explained that foreign investors are returning to Thai stocks but still selling short-term bonds. However, Poon said these sales might decrease as foreign investors had already halted speculation in the baht. If the war does not worsen, foreign investors would pile back in on Thai stocks.

Poon forecast a baht resistance level of 33.50, which would see exporters selling the dollar, and a key support level of 33.00 to 33.20, when importers would buy dollars.

The Russia-Ukraine war has forced markets into a risk-off state, which means they will remain volatile. Poon said business operators should use hedging tools such as options to manage risks.