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Philippines: Q4 growth may hit upper end of target
MANILA, Philippines — The economy has to expand by around seven percent in the fourth quarter to hit the upper end of government’s revised growth forecast for the year, finance officials said.
Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez yesterday said the economy, as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP), needs to grow in the seven percent range in the final quarter to set the pace for next year’s recovery to pre-pandemic level.
“If we hit seven percent (in the fourth quarter), we will hit 5.5 percent this year,” Dominguez said.
The Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on Tuesday raised its growth forecast for the economy to five to 5.5 percent, as industries can now operate up to 70 percent capacity with COVID cases contained. Prior to the adjustment, the DBCC had set its target range to just four to five percent for 2021.
The economy has picked up by 4.9 percent as of September. It dipped by 3.9 percent in the first quarter, then bounced back by 12 percent in the second and 7.1 percent in the third.
Dominguez said the government would escalate recovery efforts next year by shifting Metro Manila and other areas to Alert Level 1 as early as January, pairing it with the campaign to vaccinate 70 percent of the population to achieve herd immunity.
The government has administered complete doses of COVID vaccines to just 37.38 percent of Filipinos as of Dec. 13, according to Our World in Data.
Dominguez also said the government would resume face-to-face schooling by January in an effort to avert productivity losses and restore teaching jobs.
Further, the finance chief said movement restrictions may be lifted to increase the capacity of public transport units to 100 percent. The tourism sector should also benefit from the plan to loosen border protocols to both domestic and international travel.
With these measures in the pipeline, Dominguez said the economy should expand by seven to nine percent next year as targeted by the DBCC. However, he warned that hospitalization rates and the death count should be monitored to evaluate how the country is faring in containing the spread of the virus.
Finance Undersecretary and chief economist Gil Beltran, on the other hand, said that it may be too early to assess whether the economy would grow by five to 5.5 percent.
Either way, Beltran said factory output in October went up by 24.7 percent – which he attributed to the government’s decision to reopen the economy – signifying that fourth quarter figures may favor the DBCC’s projections.
Source: https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/12/16/2148208/q4-growth-may-hit-upper-end-target