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Thailand: JSCCIB raises GDP growth forecast to 0.5-1.5% this year
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has revised up its GDP growth forecast to 0.5-1.5% this year, up from 0-1%, as it expects better business prospects stemming from the reopening of the country and stimulus measures.
“Thailand has officially reopened while lockdown measures are relaxed. These are good for economic activities in November and December,” said Sanan Angubolkul, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, a key member of the JSCCIB.
The government reopened the tourism industry to fully vaccinated foreign tourists from Nov 1.
The JSCCIB expects the tourism business to resume growth, which will contribute to the economy. There are currently more internet searches for tourist attractions in Thailand, the group said.
“The occupancy rate in hotels is expected to increase by 25% in November, compared with 15% in September. Spending is also expected to improve in many provinces,” said Mr Sanan.
The JSCCIB also expects the state’s Shop Dee Mee Khuen tax rebate scheme to be relaunched to boost trade in the last two months of the year, which are packed with festive activities including Loy Krathong and the New Year celebrations.
The group believes the retail segment already passed its lowest point in the third quarter and is expecting it to grow in the last quarter of this year.
Exports are also a major factor in driving the economy this year.
Mr Sanan said the export sector may expand by 12-14% in 2021 due mainly to the global economic recovery.
However, high freight rates and a container shortage are still problems that affect exporters, said Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries.
Freight rates continue to rise sharply because global demand for shipping is high, compared with limited shipping services.
Mr Supant said Thai manufacturers, like those in other countries, are struggling to deal with supply constraints that cause a delay in production.
“Manufacturers cannot make products to meet high global demand while their prices are on the rise due to the increase in raw material prices,” Mr Supant said.
The JSCCIB expects the inflation rate will stand at 1-1.2%.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2209211/jsccib-raises-gdp-growth-forecast-to-0-5-1-5-this-year