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Thailand – BoT: 4% Q3 growth rests on export bump
Economic growth in the third quarter could expand by 4% year-on-year propelled by robust export growth, with year-end festivities expected to shore up further growth prospects in the remaining months, says the Bank of Thailand.
“Thailand’s economic growth has improved based on strong export growth of 9.1% in the first nine months, with an all-time high of 13.4% registered in September,” said Don Nakornthab, senior director at the central bank’s economic and policy department.
“As economic growth of [Thailand’s] trading partners has expanded at a good pace, it is expected that Thai exports will grow by more than 8%.”
Thailand’s GDP growth has to reach 4.1% year-on-year in the second half for the full-year growth figure to reach 3.8%, he said. Full-year GDP growth could exceed 3.8% if exports expand by more than 8%.
The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has raised its GDP growth forecast for both this year and next to 3.8% from 3.5% and 3.7% predicted in July, respectively.
Thailand’s economy expanded by 3.3% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-to-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis in the first quarter, reported the National Economic and Social Development Board. For the second quarter, the economy grew by 3.7% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-to-quarter after seasonal adjustment.
GDP growth was 3.5% in the first half.
Mr Don said it is not necessary to implement economic stimulus measures during the year-end period as economic growth has started to balance out across every sector.
But the measures depend on whether the government wants to accelerate economic growth, he said. If the government plans to take care of low-income earners, it could use an initiative similar to the welfare smart cards it issued earlier, said Mr Don.
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha instructed the Finance Ministry yesterday to consider another tax refund for shopping this year-end to stimulate consumption of durable goods, but that segment has already improved, he said.
“If a stimulus measure is needed, it should be focused on consumption of non-durable goods, such as clothing and commodities, by low-income earners,” said Mr Don.
The Thai economy grew in September thanks to robust gains in exports and tourism, in line with continued improvement in external demand, he said. Continued expansion in external trade and tourism coupled with the expansion in private consumption and private investment helped boost manufacturing production, said Mr Don.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1352123/bot-4-q3-growth-rests-on-export-bump