Myanmar: Economy yet to take off despite govt’s promise for growth; fixes needed
Last year, U Kyaw Win, the planning and finance minister, proclaimed that Myanmar’s economy is like a plane at full throttledown the runway, ready to take off. “Myanmar is like a plane running on the runway in 2016, but it is ready to take off in 2017.We will prevent [tackle] the monopoly which has persisted in Myanmar due to years of protectionism,” U Kyaw Win said.
Two years into thisgovernment’s term though, and it is clear that neither has happened. The systemneeds to be restructured for it to take flight.
The current economy is akin to the collapsed venture between All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Golden Sky World. Last year, ANA was forced to back out of a JV with ShweThanLwin’s subsidiary in which the Japanese airline originally was to pay US$25 million for a 49pc stake. The deal failed to go through because Nay Pyi Taw rejected the JV’s application for an air operator’s certificate without reason. ANA had been waiting for 1.5 years.
ANA has since decided to shut down the JV, saying it “cannot foresee a future” in Myanmar.It has not reversed that decision. The collaboration, had it gone through, would have resulted in the country’s first partnership with an international airline.
ANA’s experience in Myanmar isn’t an isolated one. In fact, criticism of the NLD-led government’s approach to working with the private sector has been rising.
Even U Ye Min Aung, vice chair of Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI), who, in a recent series of interviews conducted by The Myanmar Times with the private sector, has been among the most sympathetic of the current administration, said its response to important economy issues is too slow.
Stalled and delayed
In fact, the government has further centralised its decision-making process. Under the current system, the authority to approve important matters has fallen under a handful of selected leaders. This has stalled projects and delayed business plans.
Likewise, numerous rounds of dialogues with the business community have not translated into deliverables, while concrete policy reforms to improve the investment environment have been few and far between.
Indeed, beyond the Investment Law, Condominium Law and delayed Companies Law, the government has so far not delivered anything of substance.
Other changes, like adopting the new fiscal year and attempting to push through the draft Foreign Law were ill-conceived at best.
As a result, concerns are mounting among the investor community, regardless of them being Asian, American or European. Now, a rising number of businesses, like ANA, are opting out of Myanmar. Herzfeld Rubin Meyer &Rose and Berwin Leighton Paisner, are two examples, while Samsung was reported to be giving up on Myanmar.
To debate whether the Korean firm has really made a final decision is off the mark; instead, the government should ask themselves why Samsung is still not manufacturing in this country when the conglomerate already has three operational plants in Vietnam.
Meanwhile, business confidence has plummeted, prospective investors are more hesitant than ever and state protectionism over sectors that require foreign direct investments continues to perpetuate in the economy. Growth is at best stagnating.
These are the hard facts which have exposed the government’s failure to honour its pledge of expanding and reforming the economy so far. In fact, its delusional optimism on growth reflects a lack of understanding of pressing economic issues.
Fixing the economy
What then, should be done to improve the current situation?
The government, with its massive electoral mandate, needs to grapple with the complexities of running an economy and start delivering. Sectors must be liberalised by implementing concrete policies. Those policies, along with their mandate and vision, must be communicated clearlyto businesses.
Fundamental to these reforms is a master plan for the economy with defined objectives for the sectors, with all ministries and departments on board. This must give way to solid deliverables, not vacuous vows to move Myanmar up 70 places inthe World Bank’s ease of doing business index.
Last June, U Kyaw Win told delegates in the Myanmar Investment Forum that the government sees the economy taking off in 2017. Sean Turnell, the government’s economic adviser, agreed, stressing that it is time for Myanmar to move on from stability to growth.
That plane did not and will not take off owing to bureaucratic burdens and protectionist mindsets. It is time to build a new economy, with the right engines and a strong captain.
Source: https://www.mmtimes.com/news/economy-yet-take-despite-govts-promise-growth-fixes-needed.html