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IMF lowers Emerging Asia economic forecast over rate of anti-Covid jabs
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its annual growth forecast for Emerging Asia. It warned that a slower-than-expected vaccine rollout, further virus mutations and tighter financial conditions are risks in the region.
It cut its forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Emerging and Developing Asia by 1.1 percentage points to 7.5 percent this year, while raising next year’s GDP outlook by 0.4 percentage points to 6.4 percent. The region’s economies shrunk by 0.9 percent last year.
“A double hit to emerging market and developing economies from worsening pandemic dynamics and tighter external financial conditions would severely set back their recovery and drag global growth below this outlook’s baseline,” the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook.
For the ASEAN 5 economies, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, it cut its 2021 GDP forecast by 0.6 percentage points to 4.3 percent and raised its 2022 estimate by 0.2 percentage points to 6.3 percent. It said recent infection waves are causing a “drag on activity”. ASEAN 5 economies contracted by 3.4 percent last year.
Indonesia has been hit hardest by the Coronavirus among the ASEAN 5 economies with 3.2 million cases and nearly 87,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University in the US. The Philippines is second with 1.6 million cases and over 27,000 fatalities. Malaysia has reported more than 1 million infections and in excess of 8,000 deaths. Singapore has been relatively unaffected with 64,000 cases and 37 deaths. The island also has the most effective immunisation drive among ASEAN 5 countries at 63 percent of the population. Malaysia has vaccinated 27 percent, Indonesia 11.5 percent and the Philippines 7.9 percent of its people.
The IMF forecast 4.2 percent growth for Cambodia this year in its April economic outlook, accelerating to 6 percent in 2022. That pace would put the country among the fastest growing ASEAN economies this year.
Cambodia’s GDP contracted 3.1 percent in 2020, the sharpest drop in recent history.
The Kingdom’s growth will continue to be the fastest in the region if IMF forecasts prove correct. In April it said Cambodian GDP would grow by as much as 6.8 percent in 2026. It issued no GDP forecasts for Cambodia in its July report and IMF Resident Representative Asuhisa Ojima did not respond to phone calls and emails requesting an update.
Cambodia’s vaccination campaign is on track, with more than 7 million people receiving at least one jab and immunisation programmes spreading out from the big cities to the countryside, prompting the World Health Organization’s local representative to praise the government.
“So happy that more vulnerable people in more remote areas got vaccinated,” Li Ailan wrote on Twitter “Thanks and Congratulations to #Cambodia.”
The Kingdom has seen more than 74,000 infections and more than 1,300 deaths from Covid-19 but infections have been falling consistently from their peak, with more than one third of the population having been vaccinated twice, easing fears of another business lockdown.
Yesterday, Khmer Times reported a dispirited setback is setting in, dampening hopes of for a return to normal life with the Delta variant of the disease affecting people through migrant workers returning from Thailand. It is more virulent, faster spreading and more likely to be fatal.
Source: https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50903733/imf-lowers-emerging-asia-economic-forecast-over-rate-of-anti-covid-jabs/