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Thailand: Inflation expected to fall further this year
Thai inflation in November and December is expected to decelerate further, following a decrease in the prices of several essential consumer goods and stable prices of some items despite higher costs.
The deceleration was helped by government measures to tackle the cost of living and an easing in the flooding situation that has led to a higher supply of agricultural products.
In addition, raw materials for fresh and cooked food have also started to be supplied into the market, easing the pressure on fresh and cooked food prices, according to Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office under the Commerce Ministry.
However, Mr Poonpong conceded that rising prices of energy due to supply constraints, growing demand for tourism and exports, high prices of important agricultural products and the baht depreciation remain the key risk factors that may limit the deceleration of inflation and should be closely monitored.
“Thai inflation is not considered relatively high compared with that of other countries in the world, be they countries in Asean such as Laos, Singapore and the Philippines, or key economies like the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, India and the United States,” said Mr Poonpong. “And based on the world’s inflation statistics, Thailand’s inflation ranks 107th out of 135 countries worldwide.”
According to Mr Poonpong, the country’s headline inflation in 2022 is still projected to range between 5.5-6.5%, at an average of 6%, which is in line with the current economic situation and projections released by other government agencies.
The Commerce Ministry yesterday reported that headline inflation, gauged by the consumer price index (CPI), decelerated for two consecutive months, coming in at 5.98% year-on-year in October, down from a 6.41% rise in September 2022.
The deceleration was helped by the collaboration between public and private sectors to control the cost of living and the Commerce Ministry’s measures on price reduction and control, said Mr Poonpong.
According to Mr Poonpong, energy prices increased at a slower pace, from a 16.1% increase in September to a 13% rise in October. Growth in the prices of drugs, medical supplies, tobacco and alcoholic beverages decelerated from the previous month.
Meanwhile, prices of some items fell, including herbal and traditional medicine, surgical masks, face powder, televisions, air conditioners, and washing machines.
In addition, fresh food price growth also decelerated from 10.9% in September to 10.4% in October. Slowing price rises included meat (pork and fresh chicken) fresh vegetables and fruit (spring onions, morning glory, tangerines and watermelons), and seasonings (vegetable oil, soy sauce and chilli paste). Prices of some items dropped, including rice flour, Chinese cabbage, Chinese kale, coriander, celery, bananas, grated coconut, and tamarind sauce.
Core inflation, which excludes raw food and energy prices, posted a year-on-year rise of 3.17% in October, compared with 3.12% in September.
On a month-on-month basis, CPI rose by 0.33% from September, attributed to rising prices of fresh vegetables due to floods in many farming areas.
For the 10-month average, CPI rose by 6.15% year-on-year.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2432360/inflation-expected-to-fall-further-this-year