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Vietnam changes from trade deficit to trade surplus with Cambodia
Vietnam’s exports to Cambodia in the first eight months of 2022 reached the highest scale compared to the same period in previous years. Cambodia is the 11th largest export market among markets, accounting for nearly 1.7% of Vietnam’s total export turnover.
Compared to the same period last year, exports to Cambodia increased at a relatively high rate (32.7%, much higher than the general growth rate of 18.2%), or increased by $1,029 million, accounting for over 2.6% of the total increase of the country, one of the 10 markets with the largest increase (over $1 billion).
The number of goods exported to Cambodia is quite large.
Of the 18 major commodities, 10 were over $100 million, the highest was iron and steel ($700 million). Next is textiles ($653 million); gasoline ($494 million); raw materials for textile, garment and footwear ($242 million); fertilizer ($180 million); paper and paper products ($131 million); iron and steel products ($118 million); animal feed ($111 million); other common metals and products ($105 million).
Among these goods, there are a number of goods with large increases such as petroleum, textiles, fertilizers, iron and steel.
Vietnam’s imports from Cambodia have a relatively large scale, the largest compared to the same period so far, accounting for 1.5% of Vietnam’s total import turnover, the 11th highest among markets.
The growth rate and the absolute increase in imports are both quite low compared to the corresponding figures of exports. Among the 10 main imported items, there are rubber products with large scale ($1,079 million).
Because exports have a higher scale and growth rate than imports, in trade relations with Cambodia, Vietnam has moved from a trade deficit in the first eight months of 2021 to a trade surplus in the first eight months of this year.
From the results of the first 8 months of the year, it is possible to predict the whole year of 2022 according to some calculations.
Total export turnover to Cambodia in 2021 has reached $4.83 billion; with 8 months reaching $3,146 million, inferring the last 4 months of 2021 reached $1.68 billion.
Assuming that the average monthly export in the last 4 months of 2022 is equal to the level of August 2022 ($499.2 million), the last 4 months of 2022 will reach $1,997 million; the whole year 2022 will reach $6,172 million, up 27.8%, or $1,342 million over the previous year, reaching the highest level ever.
The forecast for imports is similar, the last 4 months of 2022 will reach $1,200 million, the whole year will reach $4,894 million, up 3.9% over the previous year.
Since then, it is calculated that the trade surplus reaches $1,278 million – although not equal to the trade surplus in the years from 2016 to 2020. However, it was in the opposite direction compared to the $357 million trade deficit in 2021.
The above forecast is based on the results of August and 8 months, in which August has a high level of exports (over $499 million), while imports are low ($300 million). Therefore, to achieve the above forecast level, several issues need to be taken care of.
Because Vietnam participates in many free trade agreements (FTAs) and enjoys preferential import and export tax, it is possible that some countries and territories may export through Cambodia to Vietnam.
In addition to two items with detailed data imported into Vietnam with a large total turnover, which are cashew nuts and rubber, there are a number of other items that need attention.
Regarding rice, in 2021, Vietnam imported 1.7-1.8 million tons of rice from Cambodia, up 60%. In the first 6 months of 2022, rice imports increased by 2.38%, with a turnover of $336.2 million, an increase of nearly 20.4%; price increased by $18/ton.
Vietnam says that it needs to review these figures because the country’s rice exports from the beginning of the year have increased in volume, but decreased in price. Vietnam Times