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Thailand tourism sector likely to rebound from 2022 amid higher tourist arrivals
THE Thai tourism sector will likely rebound as tourist arrivals accelerate amid relaxed entry rules and easing Covid-19 cases, analysts said.
Maybank analyst Yuwanee Prommaporn upgraded its call on the sector to “positive” from “neutral”, as she expects the trend of rising tourist arrivals could continue until the year-end, with international arrivals reaching 1 million each month in the fourth quarter of 2022.
While first-quarter tourist arrivals were below expectations amid the Omicron variant and tight entry rules, Prommaporn expects Thailand will still have 9 million tourist arrivals in 2022, boosted by the easing of entry rules.
From Jun 1, fully vaccinated foreign tourists to Thailand will receive instant approval after submitting the required documents for a No Quarantine Thailand Pass to visit the country, while Thai tourists will be exempted from registration. Partially vaccinated or unvaccinated travellers no longer need mandatory quarantine.
Prommaporn said the surge in tourist arrivals should lead to higher hotel occupancy rates, which is a catalyst for the sector. A campaign by the Thai government to promote tourism should also boost hotel occupancy rates.
CGS-CIMB expects hotels in Thailand will benefit from the increase in tourist arrivals, and upgraded its call on the Thai hotel sector to “neutral” from “underweight”.
The research team expects Thailand could see 7 million tourist arrivals in 2022 and 15 million in 2023, supported by the falling number of Covid-19 infections in Thailand as well as worldwide.
Additionally, CGS-CIMB expects foreign tourists could be exempted from the Thailand Pass soon, as Thais are already exempted from registration, which would bring in even more tourists. It also does not see risk from monkeypox disrupting the tourism recovery as it is unlikely not airborne.
However, Fitch Solutions noted that the recovery of the global travel sector is likely much faster in the Americas and Europe than in Asia, with flight numbers in most of Asia remaining “far below their pre-pandemic levels” in early June.
The research team expects the trend will continue over the remainder of 2022, as Chinese travellers – which make up 20 to 25 per cent of international visitors to South-east Asia – will likely continue to face strict border controls. They may also be held back by a weak economy and lingering consumer fears.
Maybank’s Prommaporn said her top picks for the Thai tourism sector are airport operator Airports of Thailand and hospitality group Minor International.
The analysts said the airport operator, as a gateway to Thailand, is likely a prime beneficiary of the recovery of Thai tourism. Meanwhile, Minor International should benefit from its portfolio in Europe as the hotel recovery there could be faster than in Thailand.
As for the CGS-CIMB research team, S Hotels and Resorts is its top pick among other Thai hotels.
Source: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/asean-business/thailand-tourism-sector-likely-to-rebound-from-2022-amid-higher-tourist-arrivals