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Philippines: DBCC expects faster 2021 GDP growth
The interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) announced on Tuesday that it had hiked its GDP growth assumption for 2021 from 4 to 5 percent to 5 to 5.5 percent.
“As we continuously relax restrictions and increase mobility, economic performance is expected to accelerate further in the last quarter of the year. As we continuously relax restrictions and increase mobility, economic performance is expected to accelerate further in the last quarter of the year,” it said in a statement read by Budget Assistant Secretary Rolando Toledo during a press briefing following the 180th DBCC meeting.
The Philippines experienced substantially more economic activity in the fourth quarter, according to Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua, estimating that the GDP likely accelerated by 7 to 8 percent year on year.
“I hope we can do that. And the good news is even as we increase mobility, even as we allow children to go out, even as we open the pilot [the opening of] schools, the cases and deaths all go down. So, that is a very good sign that we are on track to achieving more,” he emphasized.
The DBCC also said it reviewed its macroeconomic assumptions for the rest of the year based on the recent economic performance and emerging trends.
The assumptions for 2021 have been tweaked slightly to account for the most recent year-to-date performance of the major indicators, it underscored.
Revenue projections for 2021 are likely to surpass the goal, reaching P3.027 trillion, “due to increased economic activity and improved services of our revenue agencies arising from their digitalization projects.” Meanwhile, full-year disbursements for this year are projected to total P4.633 trillion, up 9.6 percent from last year.
“This is mainly attributed to the accelerated spending performance seen in infrastructure and other capital outlays, personnel services, transfers to local governments and equity and interest payments,” the DBCC noted.
Because of higher-than-anticipated receipts and lower-than-estimated expenditures in 2021, it said, the deficit program for this year is seen to be lower at 8.2 percent of GDP.
“With our strong economic performance in 2021, the DBCC is optimistic that the country’s GDP will return to its pre-pandemic level by 2022,” the economic managers stressed.
The medium-term growth projections were kept at 7 to 9 percent in 2022, and 6 to 7 percent in 2023 and 2024.
Given recent economic events, the inflation, international trade and foreign exchange rate outlooks for 2022 to 2024 were maintained.
The price of Dubai crude oil per barrel, on the other hand, was revised upward to $60 to $80 per barrel for the years 2022 to 2024.
The DBCC went on to say, “This is mainly due to the optimistic demand outlook for oil as the global economy gradually rebounds in the medium-term.” Revenues are anticipated to rebound to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, P3.624 trillion in 2023, and P4.049 trillion in 2024, following a strong revenue collection performance in 2021.
The total disbursement program was retained at P4.955 trillion for 2022.
Source: https://www.manilatimes.net/2021/12/15/business/top-business/dbcc-expects-faster-2021-gdp-growth/1825967