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Thailand: Prices heading sideways down
The gold price is likely to move sideways down in the short and medium term, pressured by the progress of Covid-19 vaccines, but the long term price is still expected to trend upwards, supported by global central banks’ money-easing policies.
The global gold price briefly fell on Monday night as Moderna announced that its vaccine is nearly 95% effective, before swiftly rebounding that same night.
“Even as the vaccine progress is pressuring the gold price to below US$1,900, the metal remains attractive as Covid-19 cases in the US and Europe soar and worries about the coming winter that could accelerate the spread and hinder the economic recovery persist,” said Tanarat Pasawongse, chief executive officer at Hua Seng Heng Group.
Mr Tanarat gave the local bullion price at 26,800-27,100/27,300 baht per one baht of gold and the spot gold price at $1,860-1,900/1,920 per ounce in the short term. He said there are both buyers and sellers at the company’s gold shops.
Varut Rungkhum, head of research at YLG Bullion & Futures, said the gold price would move along a narrow range this week and sideways down in the medium term (1-2 months) with the support line at $1,821-1,805.
He said the global price at $1,805 offers an interesting buying point to take a profit from cyclical impacts.
“The gold price usually hits the year’s low in the fourth quarter and remains low through the new year’s first quarter before peaking in the third quarter,” Mr Varut said.
This year, the global gold price peaked at $2,074.75 in August while the domestic price peaked at 30,400 baht with the support of the baht, which hit its lowest level in April before rebounding in May, and has hardened again this month.
Apart from making a profit from the cyclical impact, the global gold price next year could reach $2,075, around the same as this year’s peak level.
“Gold is an asset benefiting from the outbreak and the money-easing policies set to boost economic recovery. The money injection could lead to inflation, and gold is a safe haven as protection from inflation,” he said.
The support line for the yearly forecast is $1,750-1,805, which is the current annual low.
The baht is a key factor in making the local gold price reach a new high. It could get stronger against the US dollar if Mr Biden takes up office as the US president.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2021379/prices-heading-sideways-down