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Thailand: Local energy firms predict fuel price uptick
Local energy companies are warning of a rise in retail fuel prices if global crude oil prices skyrocket above US$70 per barrel as a result of US-Iran tensions.
Chairit Simaroj, managing director of Susco, a local oil trader, said these tensions could be prolonged if the nations fail to negotiate.
“This is the beginning stage, so it is hard to estimate when these tensions will end, but a global oil price above $70 is very possible,” he said. “The assassination last weekend made oil prices rise on Monday, then they dropped two days after. Yesterday, Iran attacked US military camps in Iraq and oil prices are expected to rise again.”
Mr Chairit said that if tensions worsen and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it will amount to a global nightmare.
The strait connects Oman, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean.
Crude oil transported from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE must pass through this waterway.
Kongkrapan Intarajang, chief executive of PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC), a petrochemical maker, said the company has witnessed geopolitical tensions occur repeatedly in the region over the last few years.
“These tensions in the Middle East began in 2013-14, but the company planned to avoid any impact to the business,” Mr Kongkrapan said.
PTTGC has reduced shipments from the Middle East for several years by revamping three petrochemical facilities to match crude oil resources from West Africa and North and South America.
“Oil prices cannot be estimated amid these current tensions because the conflicts have only begun,” Mr Kongkrapan said.
Petrochemicals and Refining Integrated Synergy Management (Prism), PTT’s internal think tank, previously estimated that the global crude oil supply from Opec nations would decline by 500,000 barrels in 2020.
Non-OPEC members would increase their crude oil supply by 2.2 million barrels this year, adding roughly 1.7 million barrels to global net production.
Prism projects global crude oil demand to increase by 1-1.3 million barrels in 2020, creating a surplus supply of 400,000-700,000 barrels.
Prism’s projection was made before the recent US-Iran tensions. The think tank is maintaining its crude oil price forecast in a range of $55-$65 per barrel.
In 2020, global oil production is projected at 101-102 million barrels, 31% of it from Opec members.
For non-Opec countries, the US would make a record high in crude oil production of 14 million barrels in 2020, up from 13 million in 2019, thanks to the lower production cost of key shale oil basins staying below $50 per barrel.
Shale oil resources comprise 70% of all US oil production.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1831629/local-energy-firms-predict-fuel-price-uptick