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Thailand: Inflation slows from September high
The headline inflation rate, gauged by the increase in the consumer price index (CPI), rose for the 16th straight month in October but slowed from September as prices of raw food, vegetables and fruits dropped.
The Commerce Ministry reported yesterday consumer prices rose 1.23% year-on-year last month, easing from 1.33% in September and 1.62% in August, which was the highest since October 2014 on rising prices for energy and fresh food.
Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said a rise in prices of energy, vehicles, transport and communication as well as rice, flour and cereal products took place in October.
She said oil prices rose for the 23rd month in a row.
Of the 422 product and service items used to gauge inflation, the prices of 216 items such as milled rice, housing rents, instant coffee and powdered milk rose last month. No price changes were registered for 80 items, while 126 items, including pork, vegetable oil and coriander, saw prices drop.
On a monthly basis, prices edged up by 0.06% from September, boosted by rising rice and flour prices.
For the first 10 months, inflation averaged 1.15% over the same period last year, which still moved in line with the Commerce Ministry’s forecast at 0.8-1.6%.
Core CPI, which excludes raw food and energy prices, rose by 0.75% year-on-year in October and 0.04% month-on-month from September. For the first 10 months, core inflation averaged 0.72%.
Ms Pimchanok said inflation is expected to be 1.28-1.5% in the fourth quarter on rising oil prices and a weaker baht. The inflation forecast for 2018 by the Commerce Ministry was an average of 1.25%, she said.
The forecast was made assuming the country’s GDP will grow 4.2-4.7%, with Dubai crude oil prices averaging US$68-73 per barrel, an exchange rate of 32-34 baht per dollar, private consumption increasing 4.1% and export growth of more than 8%.
The ministry predicted crops prices to contract 6.5-7.5% from a year before.
October’s headline inflation at 1.2% was slightly lower than market expectations, with lower fresh food prices based on strong supply, said Standard Chartered Bank Thai economist Tim Leelahaphan.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1568834/inflation-slows-from-september-high