Thailand
Thailand: Shippers predict 8% export plunge
A shippers group forecasts Thai exports to fall by 8% this year, slightly better than the 10% contraction predicted in July, due to a gradual recovery in global demand.
Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairwoman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, said that if the country fetches US$19.5-20 billion a month in the remaining months of the year, overall exports are likely to see a contraction of 8%.
In July, Thai shippers downgraded the country’s export outlook to a 10% contraction, deeper than the previous forecast of an 8% drop, explained by the pandemic crisis and the strong baht.
Weakening purchasing power and the ailing economies of key trading partners were key components in the TNSC’s export forecast cut.
Given the latest export figures, a gradual recovery of global demand after relaxations of the tight lockdown measures to curb the spread of the pandemic, and government measures to accelerate the country’s economic recovery, Ms Ghanyapad said she is feeling more bullish on exports.
“The number of purchase orders worldwide are seeing good expansion such as food products [premium rice and canned tuna], work-at-home products [electrical appliances] and disease prevention products [rubber gloves],” she said. “Thai exports have bottomed out after the country reopened.”
On Sept 23, the Commerce Ministry reported that the value of Thai exports improved in August on a month-to-month basis and stood above $20 billion for the first time in five months.
Customs-cleared exports fetched $20.2 billion in August, down 7.9%, after dropping 11.4% year-on-year in July and falling 23.2% in June, marking the weakest pace since July 2009.
Imports fell 19.7% in August to $15.9 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $4.34 billion.
For the first eight months of 2020, exports shrank 7.8% to $153 billion, while imports dropped 15.3% to $135 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $18.4 billion.
In August, shipments of agricultural and agro-industrial products fell 13.2% year-on-year to $3.1 billion, pressured by sugar (-64.2%), rubber (-32.2%), fresh, chilled, frozen, canned and processed fruits and vegetables (-28.7%) and rice (-15%).
Some segments expanded favourably, such as palm oil (+600%), chilled and frozen pork (+962%), pet food (+22.3%) and cassava products (+15.6%).
Exports of industrial products fell by 6.2% in August to $16.6 billion, slowed by jewellery and gems ex gold (-55.6%), oil-related products (-15.7%), automobiles, equipment and parts (-28.7%) and radio and TV receivers and parts (-18.3%).
Some segments expanded strongly, such as rubber gloves (+126%), washing machines and dry cleaning machines (+31.3%), fax machines, telephones, equipment and parts (+35.8%) and gold (+71.5%).
Ms Ghanyapad said exporters are still fretting over higher transport costs and insufficient containers, the strong baht and a foreign labour shortage.
She said exporters would like to see the new finance minister waive withholding tax to help entrepreneurs while introducing fresh measures to stimulate the economy.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1997783/shippers-predict-8-export-plunge