Thailand
Southeast Asia GDP growth revised up to 5% in 2022
The Asian Development Bank revised its GDP growth projections for Southeast Asian countries in 2022 to 5 percent, slightly up from its earlier estimates of 4.9 percent.
The bank, which maintained the forecast for 2023 at 5.2 percent, made its observations regarding the economic performance of Asean Countries in its Asian Development Outlook Supplement for July.
The bank also significantly raised Southeast Asia’s inflation forecast for 2022 from 3.7 percent to 4.7 percent. Inflation next year is revised up, from 3.1 percent to 3.4 percent.
It said consumption growth in all subregional economies rebounded strongly in the first five months of this year due to the gradual lifting of Covid-19 mobility restrictions and the reopening of markets and borders.
The bank observed that the manufacturing and services output has been increasing in most economies, helping create jobs and lifting household incomes.
However, it warned that the countries in the region face some significant challenges, including higher oil prices, the end of low global interest rates, and trade and supply disruptions.
It said such factors have dimmed the outlook for some economies
in 2022 and 2023.
“Smaller economies in particular are being more heavily affected by supply disruptions and inflation from higher oil prices. Tourist arrivals are picking up, albeit very slowly,” the report mentioned.
It also pointed out that the economies in the subregion with high vaccination rates have yet to see meaningful tourism revivals.
It raised the growth projection for Indonesia from 5 percent to 5.2 percent due to the robust domestic demand and exports.
The bank said increased uncertainty and weaker global growth have been dampening Malaysia’s prospects.
“Growth of five percent in Q1 2022 was underpinned by strong private consumption and increased government assistance through the Bantuan Keluarga family assistance programme. But business confidence and the PMI continue to soften in step with weaker global prospects and supply disruptions from cities in the PRC that were locked down to tackle Covid-19 outbreaks,” the report said.
The bank also raised the growth forecast for the Philippines from 6 percent to 6.5 percent for 2022 on a stronger-than-expected first quarter performance, underpinned by rebounds in investment and household consumption.
“Wider Covid-19 vaccination coverage and relatively mild health impacts from the Omicron variant allowed the economy to reopen further,” it added.
According to the report, Singapore’s growth will remain firm in 2022, supported by robust information technology and financial services, sustained manufacturing growth, and a gradual recovery in tourism and domestic-oriented services sectors.
The bank also maintained a growth forecast of 6.5 percent for this year and 6.7 percent for next year for Viet Nam.
It said the Lao PDR’s economic prospects in 2022 are looking dimmer because of declining consumer and business confidence caused by rising prices and a weaker local currency. However, the outlook is expected to improve in 2023. “While there are slight improvements in industry and services growth in Myanmar, political tensions and a volatile security situation remain the major downside risks to economic recovery,” the report pointed out.
Source: https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501125998/southeast-asia-gdp-growth-revised-up-to-5-in-2022/