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Thailand: Exporters see rosier year for growth
Thai shippers have raised their export growth forecast to 2.5-3.5% this year from an earlier 2-3% after the country’s export performance fared better than expected in the first quarter.
Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairwoman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, said exports are likely to continue their growth in the second quarter, as traders have been building up inventories that dropped sharply last year. The council sees exports rising by 5% year-on-year in the second quarter.
The Commerce Ministry reported on April 24 that customs-cleared exports rose by 9.2% year-on-year in March to UScopy9.3 billion (666 billion baht) after February’s 2.8% increase, driven by the recovery of world trade and improving shipments of oil-related products and rubber.
Exports to the key markets of the US, Europe, Japan and South Asia rose by 7.1%, 10.2%, 14.9% and 19.1% in March. Only shipments to five Asean countries (Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines and Brunei) and the Middle East fell.
Exports of agricultural and agribusiness products rose by 12% year-on-year in March, fetching $3.25 billion, boosted by higher shipments of rubber, which rose 95.4%; processed frozen poultry, up 15%; and frozen fresh vegetables and fruit, up 3%.
Exports of industrial products also increased by 8.7% to copy6.7 billion, led by processed rubber, which rose by 64.7%; computers and components, up 18.4%; and fuel oil, up 53.9%.
In March, imports rose by 19.3% year-on-year to copy9.3 billion, yielding a trade surplus of copy.62 billion.
For the first three months of 2017, Thailand’s exports rose by 4.9% to $56.5 billion, marking the highest rate in four years. Imports rose by 14.8% to $52.4 billion.
The ministry aims for export growth of 5% this year after a rise of 0.5% in 2016.
Ms Ghanyapad said the export gains may slow in the second half of the year because of the negative impact of protectionist US trade measures and retaliatory actions by US trading partners. Another concern is conflicts in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula.
The council predicted Thai exports to average growth of 2-3% for each remaining quarter.
“We expect that not every industry will be affected by such negative factors,” Ms Ghanyapad said. “The prospects for the food sector, such as frozen and processed chicken, seafood and fruit, in particular, remain promising thanks to growing demand.”
Ms Ghanyapad said the recent surprise phone call from US President Donald Trump to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his invitation to the White House signalled closer ties and showed US acceptance to a certain extent. The visit should allow Thailand to defend itself against accusations about the US’s trade deficit with Thailand, she said.
Thailand was named as one of 16 countries in an executive order by Mr Trump in late March calling for an investigation into US trade imbalances and vowing to reverse the country’s trade deficit. One order gave the US Commerce Department 90 days to produce a report on the factors behind the trade deficit, while a second sought to raise the collection of tariff duties on imports.
Source: http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1243110/exporters-see-rosier-year-for-growth