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Thailand: 2017-21 growth forecast at 3.8-4.3%
The government’s planning unit is upbeat about Thailand’s medium-term economic prospects, predicting growth of 3.8-4.3% a year over the next five years, in line with the country’s 12th National Social and Economic Development Plan (2017-21).
Wichayayuth Boonchit, senior adviser to the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), who met an IMF mission led by Ana Corbacho yesterday, delivered the outlook based on global economic expansion averaging 3.6% a year during the five-year period.
Mr Wichayayuth said Thailand’s economy has grown despite high household debt, which was the key limitation hindering economic growth over the last several years. Positive growth is further predicted next year, when a spate of big-ticket infrastructure projects get off the ground.
The NESDB told the IMF team that the Thai economy grew at its fastest pace in more than four years in the second quarter, prompting the agency to raise its 2017 economic growth forecast range to 3.5-4%, up from 3.3-3.8% in May.
Thailand’s GDP rose by 3.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, after expanding 3.3% in the first quarter.
That increase marked a 17-quarter high, following 5.2% growth in the first quarter of 2013.
Seasonally adjusted, GDP rose 1.3% in the second quarter compared with the previous three months.
In the first half, the economy grew by 3.5% year-on-year. Second-quarter growth was driven by an acceleration in exports of goods and services, continued expansion of private consumption and a rebound in private investment.
Agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, transport and communications also picked up steam.
Mr Wichayayuth said Thailand’s economic conditions during the July-August period had remained in good shape, driven notably by the manufacturing and tourism sectors.
The agriculture and investment sectors, both public and private, recovered during the period.
Referring to the IMF’s inquiry about second-quarter government investment, which declined sharply by 7.0% against a 9.7% increase in the first quarter, he said the drop was partly due to accelerated disbursement in the previous quarter.
Mr Wichayayuth said the lower government investment was short-lived, adding that state enterprises were still expanding and government investment would pick up by year-end.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1335479/2017-21-growth-forecast-at-3-8-4-3-