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Malaysia: January exports down, but above forecast
PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s exports in January 2020 fell 1.5% to RM84.08bil from a year ago, but was better than the Bloomberg forecast of 1.6%, as trade was impacted by lower exports to China.
The International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti) said imports slipped 2.4% to RM72.08bil versus the survey of a 1.4% decline.
Malaysia recorded a trade surplus of RM12bil in January 2020,4.2% higher compared to January 2019.
This was the highest monthly trade surplus for January since January 2011 and the 267th consecutive month of surplus.
While total trade amounted to RM156.17bil, this was a contraction of 2% from January 2019.
A Bloomberg survey had forecast a 1.4% decline in imports and a surplus of RM10.70bil.
“Lower trade was seen with China, Thailand, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Taiwan, while higher trade was recorded with the United States, Australia, the Republic of Korea and Indonesia.
“On a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, total trade, exports, imports and trade surplus decreased 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.4% and 4%, respectively, ” it said in a statement yesterday.
Miti said in January 2020, exports of manufactured goods rose 1.1% to RM71bil and accounted for 84.4% of Malaysia’s total exports.
The main contributors to the increase in exports were petroleum products which increased 45.8%, iron and steel products (up 43%) and rubber products (up 10.7%), followed by machinery, equipment and parts (up 5.7%).
However, exports of mining goods fell 20.1% to RM7.15bil and constituted 8.5% of Malaysia’s total exports.
Miti said the lower exports were mainly due to the contraction in the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which was led by lower average unit value and volume.
It said electrical and electronic products totaled RM32.41bil and accounted for 38.6% of total exports, falling 5.5% from January 2019.
As for petroleum products, they increased 45.8% to RM6.71bil and represented 8% of total exports.
Chemicals and chemical products saw a decline of 17.7% to RM4.25bil (5.1% of total exports).
Also declining were LNG by 22.8% to RM3.99bil (7% of total exports) and palm oil and palm oil-based agriculture products, which inched up 0.5% to RM3.74bil.
MIDF Research in a report said it has revised downward its forecast of the country’s export growth to 0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) for this year from the 1.5% y-o-y anticipated initially.
The research firm said it anticipates exports to grow 1.5% y-o-y in 2020, rebounding from a 1.7% y-o-y fall in 2019.
This is on the back of the US-China phase one trade deal besides lower base effects.
“However, with more threats to global trade flows emerging, especially Covid-19, we foresee the recovery to be modest at 0.6% y-o-y.
“In addition, uncertainties over trade issues and loss of growth momentum in some major economies will continue to threaten our exports performance, ” it added.
Source: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/03/05/january-exports-down-but-above-forecast